Bisphenol A: release of new production capacity The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified

Entering November, the bisphenol A market continued to fluctuate
downward.
As of November 23, the market price in East China fell to 11,600 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 1,800 yuan
from the end of last month.
In the future, the risk of continued softening of the cost side increases, and the release of new production capacity on the supply side puts pressure on the market, and the bisphenol A market may have room
to continue to fall.

The supply is abundant

Longzhong information analyst Zhang Qiang said that in November, the bisphenol A market fluctuated downward, although the current decline slowed down, but the market inquiry was further reduced, the shippers' shipments were not smooth, the offer gradually approached the low end, and the market negotiation center also fell
.
At the same time, the news of the new device test was released, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, a petrochemical bisphenol A in East China was auctioned twice, and the transaction volume also turned weak, confirming the market situation
of the bisphenol A industry is not optimistic.

At present, the capacity utilization rate of bisphenol A industry equipment is about 61%.

In mid-November, Covestro's two bisphenol A production lines were overhauled, and the Nantong Xingchen bisphenol A plant was restarted on November 14, and the load of other devices did not fluctuate significantly, and the overall operating rate of the bisphenol A industry remained basically stable
.

In the third quarter, Cangzhou Dahua's 200,000 tons/year bisphenol A plant was put into operation, and the total domestic bisphenol A production capacity reached 3.
035 million tons/year
.
At present, Jiangsu Ruiheng's 240,000 tons/year plant products will flow into the market, and the 200,000 tons/year plant of Luxi Group will also be put into operation in December, when the supply side will be more and more abundant
.

For the future market, Zhang Qiang and other market participants believe that the progress of the new bisphenol A device is a key factor
affecting the market trend.
From the current overall trading situation, market bears still have the upper hand, if Jiangsu Ruiheng 240,000 tons / year new production capacity into the market, does not rule out the possibility that the
bisphenol A market will continue to weaken.

The cost side is weak

In November, the phenol market for bisphenol A raw material continued to operate weakly, and the center of gravity
declined.
As of November 24, the negotiated price of phenol in East China was 8450~8550 yuan, down 1500 yuan
from the end of last month.

He Junsong, a sales officer of Jilin Petrochemical, introduced that from the perspective of the market, the 650,000 tons/year phenol plant of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.
, Ltd.
was put into operation in mid-November, and there is currently product output; Jiangsu Ruiheng New Material Technology Co.
, Ltd.
's 650,000 tons/year device has been put into new materials
.
The increase in supply affects the mentality of the industry, the intention of terminal enterprises to deliver orders continues to weaken, the shipment of cargo holders is not smooth, the phenomenon of deposit and profit operation, and the price center of gravity continues to
fall.
In the situation of market inversion, it is difficult to increase the volume of trading
.

According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the domestic multi-set phenolone plant has been put into operation, as of the end of October, the annual production capacity of the domestic phenolone plant reached 6.
15 million tons, and in the fourth quarter, there are still two sets of units with an annual production capacity of 1.
3 million tons are expected to be put into operation, with a capacity growth rate of 37.
45%.

Due to the centralized production of phenolic ketone plants during the year, the domestic supply increased significantly, resulting in a serious shortage
of market momentum for longing.

He Junsong said that with the successive commissioning of integrated units, domestic phenolone production capacity has increased
simultaneously.
At present, the operating rate of phenolic ketone enterprises has increased to about 84%, and the Changchun chemical plant that was previously planned to be shut down is close to full load operation, and Wanhua Chemical has gradually increased the load
.
The factors that stimulate the launch of new phenolone production capacity mainly come from the release
of new production capacity of downstream bisphenol A and methyl methacrylate (MMA) devices.
However, due to the uncertainty of the commissioning time of the new device, the competition in the phenolone market will intensify, and the phenol market still has room for decline, which is negative for the downstream bisphenol A market
in terms of cost.

The requirement is not started

"Whether it is epoxy resin or polycarbonate (PC) market in the downstream of bisphenol A, demand has not yet started, which is also an important factor
in the weak operation of the bisphenol A market.
" Wang Yingchao, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said
.

At present, the capacity utilization rate of liquid epoxy resin is 62.
8%, the capacity utilization rate of solid epoxy resin is only 39.
3%, and the overall capacity utilization rate of epoxy resin is 51.
05%.

Wang Yingchao said that from the perspective of the market, epoxy resin downstream factory purchase intention to maintain rigid demand, although traders are unwilling to ship at low prices, but the market is favorable and lacking, the industry is bearish on the future market to breed, cautious wait-and-see, it is expected that the short-term market may still fall
.

Another downstream PC capacity load dropped to around
41%.
Near the end of the year, the PC industry supply and demand are weak, and the willingness to purchase is not high
.
Affected by factors such as the decline in exchange rates and poor demand, the spot price of imported raw materials showed a downward trend simultaneously, and the resistance to real trading increased
.

Therefore, from the demand side, the two major downstream industries of epoxy resin and PC cannot provide strong support
for the bisphenol A market.