Benzene lost nearly 1,000 yuan!

The price "falls and falls" endlessly, and the cost remains high

Since April, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been "falling and falling" endlessly, while the cost is high and the industry profit margin is constantly narrowing
.
As of May 16, the loss of benzene-based maleic anhydride products reached 960 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the profit of butane-based phthalic anhydride, which was a big profit maker in the past, has also dropped to about 60 yuan
.

Industry insiders believe that the cost is high and difficult, the supply is sufficient and the demand recovery is less than expected, which will hinder the transmission of costs
.

Production capacity releases market pressure

According to Li Tong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, at the end of last year, the shortage of supply brought about a historic market situation.
The maleic anhydride market was very popular for a while.
The gross profit of the benzene method and n-butane method reached 8,612 yuan and 9,434 yuan respectively.
, in stark contrast to the current deep predicament
.

"An important factor causing this situation is the substantial increase in the production of maleic anhydride
.
" Li Tong analyzed
.

According to statistics, since December last year, Guangdong Huizhou Yuxin New Materials 150,000 tons/year and Shandong Qixiang Tengda 100,000 tons/year maleic anhydride new production capacity have successively entered the market, and the device has achieved high-load operation in a short period of time.
The overhaul plan of the production unit was delayed and the market supply was very sufficient, which became a "stumbling block" for the maleic anhydride market to rise
.
After "May 1st", the price of maleic anhydride in Shandong's main factories has been lowered for 3 consecutive working days, down by about 700 yuan
.

At present, the loads of the two process units of maleic anhydride have fluctuated, but the supply is still sufficient
.
The benzene process unit had to reduce the load due to serious losses
.
Shandong Hongxin and Tangshan Baotie installations were shut down, and Jiangsu Yabang and Yunnan Dawei were all operating at a reduced rate.
The supply loss of benzene process maleic anhydride was obvious, and the industry operating rate was only 33.
33%
.
However, the maleic anhydride shutdown device of the butane process resumed production before and after the "May 1st".
At present, the operation is stable, and the industry operating rate has reached 85%
.

"Shandong Qixiang Tengda's 100,000-ton/year new plant has been put into operation, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber will resume supply in the near future.
At that time, it may continue to put pressure on the market.
There is still a risk of falling maleic anhydride prices, but considering cost factors, the downside may be limited
.
"Li Tong thinks
.

High costs hinder transmission

Under normal circumstances, the rise in the raw material market will inevitably drive the downstream of the industrial chain to follow up
.
But for maleic anhydride, the rising prices of raw materials such as pure benzene failed to bring hot market, but squeezed the profit space of the industry
.

Judging from the raw material pure benzene, the current domestic market price has exceeded the 9,000 yuan mark
.
"Insufficient supply is an important factor in detonating the pure benzene market
.
" Song Yang, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that April to May is the traditional maintenance season for pure benzene plants, with maintenance losses exceeding 300,000 tons
.
In addition to planned maintenance, Shandong local refinery and some main plants have further reduced domestic pure benzene production due to economical reductions, helping the market to rise
.
In addition, the strong operation of the external market has also formed a linkage with the domestic market
.

Looking at the market outlook, affected by the restart of styrene plants in the United States and the overhaul of some pure benzene plants in South Korea, it is expected that the price of pure benzene external disks will remain high
.
However, domestic port inventories may continue to decline due to the scarcity of arrivals in Jiangnei
.
Under the support of the high level of the outer disk and the low inventory of the port, the market price of pure benzene is easy to rise and difficult to fall
.

From the perspective of another raw material, butane, the mainstream of the market is stable
.
Some refineries have resumed outsourcing, the market circulation continues to increase, and the downstream market has failed to fundamentally improve
.
However, there is a rigid demand for deep processing, and the short-term butane market is expected to remain stable at a high level
.

To sum up, it is unlikely that the raw material pure benzene or butane will drop sharply, and the short-term high cost of maleic anhydride may be difficult to change
.

Terminal sluggish demand shrinks

Jinlianchuang analyst Wang Li said that after the "May 1st" holiday, the unsaturated resin market in the downstream of maleic anhydride has gradually become bullish, but the terminal demand has not been fundamentally improved
.
The supply and demand itself is weak, and the unsaturated resin market can only open a downward channel with the cost side
.

"At present, the operating rate of the domestic unsaturated resin industry is around 28%
.
However, the low operating rate has not resulted in a surge in the market, and the current price of unsaturated resins is at a low position
.
Many industry players are cautious about the market outlook.
Falling prices are also difficult to bring enough attraction to terminal factories
.
" Wang Li said
.

Regarding the market outlook, Wang Li analyzed that it is difficult to expect a substantial increase in terminal demand, and it is unlikely that the unsaturated resin market has a high volume of transactions.
The short-term price may continue to show a slight downward trend, which is difficult to form a support for the raw material maleic anhydride market
.