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In the last week before the holiday, the domestic aluminum market once again led the trend
of aluminum prices.
Shanghai aluminum by the cost of rise, tight supply of goods, maintain a high level of shock, Shanghai aluminum main force continued to run above the 5-day line, below the 60-day moving average support obvious, Thursday by the external market and spot premium driven, the price once rose to a high of 12455 yuan / ton, this week the main operating range of 12150 ~ 12400 yuan / ton
.
It is expected that after the holiday, Shanghai aluminum will remain high, maintain a strong trend, continue to test the previous high, and it is expected that the operating range of Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract after the holiday is 12200~12600 yuan / ton
.
In terms of Lun aluminum, in the last week before the holiday, Lun aluminum steadily ran above the 60-day moving average, rushed to 1674 US dollars / ton on Tuesday and fell, driven by the frozen production agreement on Wednesday, oil prices soared, Lun aluminum rose again, this week's operating range is 1630 ~ 1670 US dollars / ton, increase and reduce positions
.
The following 60-day and 40-day moving average support is obvious, the upper band of the Bollinger band is still under pressure, cautiously pay attention to the impact of Lun aluminum by crude oil, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum operating range of 1630~1700 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of industry, Asian Metal Network data shows that the operating rate of domestic aluminum rod factories in August was about 58.
1%, a slight decline from July, and the market expects that the operating rate can recover to 60-70% in September; The American Aluminum Association once again called on the government to investigate China's policy support for aluminum exports in depth and pressure the US government to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese aluminum products
.
Macro, OPEC unexpectedly reached a frozen production agreement, crude oil soared through the $48 / barrel mark, U.
S.
data were mixed, the dollar index high narrow range, base metals by crude oil to boost the low recovery, National Day consumer buying is more fueled metal prices rebound, the domestic aluminum market performance is crazy, spot inventory continues to decline, pre-holiday stocking to form a rush to buy, spot premium again as high as 600 yuan / ton, domestic and foreign aluminum with the rise of the aluminum market
.
In terms of the market, due to the sharp reduction in inventory before the holiday, the stocking atmosphere in the week first suppressed and then rose, and the cargo holders were actively shipped, and the spot premium was slightly reduced to 500 yuan / ton from last week, and by Thursday, the stocking atmosphere suddenly rose, the market received goods positively, and then it was crazy, and the spot premium in Shanghai rushed to around
650 yuan / ton.
Although the inventory will increase due to the continuous arrival during the November period, the overall inventory will still be at an absolute low level, and it is expected that the spot premium will return to a high level after the holiday, between 400~600 yuan / ton
.
On the plate, the strong characteristics of Shanghai aluminum have not changed, and there has been a continuous surge before the holiday, but considering the risk of a longer holiday or a recovery of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, it is appropriate
to take profit moderately.
