Base metals generally retreated, copper prices fell back to test support

On the macro front, at the end of last week, China announced that residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February rose 11.
8% year-on-year, of which key control cities fell month-on-month, but prices in third- and fourth-tier cities heated up, and many cities announced new purchase restrictions on the same day, and the real estate market was expected to deteriorate
across the board.
Since the rate of real estate investment funds has fallen sharply since this year, if the purchase is further restricted, it will have a significant impact on the follow-up funds in place, and the result of suppressing the growth of real estate investment can be expected
.
Considering the continuity of investment, it will not have a substantial impact on related investment and demand in the first half of the year, but the downward pressure in the second half of the year will further increase
.

In addition, the tightness of funds intensified during the week, and even defaults by small-scale financial institutions, the central bank was forced to urgently release liquidity, and bank lending rates hit a new high
.
The main reason for the sudden tightening of funds at the end of the quarter is the bank's quarterly fund assessment, and it may be that funds will remain tight until the end of
March.
Therefore, the market chose to ignore the good economic data and turn to expectations
of a peak economic rebound.
U.
S.
stocks fell slightly this week, the logic of U.
S.
economic growth is still strengthening, macro influencing factors are both bearish, it is difficult to form a consistent driving force on commodities, and it may also lead to the volatility of commodity trends
.
In the near future, we will pay attention to the easing of domestic capital constraints and the direction of major economic data in March
.

In terms of the market, base metals generally retreated this week, but the fundamentals of various varieties diverged significantly
.
Copper market consumption and supply has not changed much, downstream demand is just good, but due to the previous week's price decline has been generally bargain hunting, as the price rise chooses to digest low-priced inventory, both electric copper and copper rod sales last week significantly reduced
.
Affected by the tight capital during the week, copper rod factories reported that although there were orders, they did not dare to accept orders due to untimely payment, and traders also had financial pressure to actively ship, resulting in the spot market being more dull
this week than last week.
According to data released by the Dashang platform, the daily trading volume was below 5,000 tons for most of this week, and it was as low as 2,000 tons on Thursday, which is half lower than the normal level of the peak season, and the lack of spot demand can be seen
.
As of Friday, the discount of spot to the main contract narrowed to 400 yuan, the price difference of scrap copper to electric copper was 5,000 yuan, but the import loss remained above 300 yuan, and the trade premium was $45, and the spread structure showed that spot began to show support, but the supply was still loose, and there was no obvious driving force
.

Overall, over time, the peak season is just in good demand, but the current inventory is too large, digestion takes time, with the current weak spread structure, there is greater
pressure to re-form a strong pattern.
In a short period of time, the macro-control of tight funds is expected to be bearish and concentrated, but it is expected to be a short-term phenomenon, and with the continuation of consumption, it is still believed that copper prices are expected to remain stable and rise
again.
Downstream is recommended to stock up on the dip
.
Of course, the price in February and March was repeatedly pressured at 48500-49000, which became the recent pressure level, and the height of the price recovery was limited, and it is recommended to treat
it as a range shock.