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According to World Energy Nov.
25: Brent crude prices will reach an average of $80 a barrel in 2022, Barclays said on Tuesday, raising its forecast by $3 as the bank expects supply growth to slow next year and inventory cuts to accelerate
by the end of the year.
In a Reuters report published on Tuesday, Barclays also raised its forecast for the average price of WTI crude in 2022 by $3 to $77 a barrel, as it predicted OPEC+ would not rush to resume all production
as planned if the market was oversupplied early next year.
The oversupply at the start of 2022 appears to be the prevailing forecast for almost all analysts and observers, including OPEC+ itself, which has been warning for months against increasing production more than planned
.
Barclays now expects a surplus as early as Q1 2022 compared to its previous forecast for Q2 2022, but notes that the likely loss of commercial inventory this year is higher than previously expected, which would lead to a lower inventory
build.
Barclays said that OPEC+ could slow or even suspend its monthly production increase of 400,000 barrels per day if the current pandemic recovery has a significant impact on global oil demand
, Barclays said.
The British bank said that the planned coordinated release of SPR by the United States and major Asian consumers, including India and Japan, would not have a material impact
on oil prices.
"We do not believe that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a sustainable source of supply and the impact of this market intervention is only temporary," Barclays analysts wrote
in a report accompanying Reuters.
Last week, Goldman Sachs said the market had priced in coordinated releases from national reserves, adding that the U.
S.
expected to release 20 million to 30 million barrels of crude and the rest could release a total of 30 million barrels
.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said the recent drop in oil prices was not in line with fundamentals, maintaining its estimate
of Brent crude oil at an average price of $85 in the fourth quarter.