August refined oil export plan forecast

It is reported that the domestic refined oil export plan in August has been introduced, and the total planned export volume of steam and diesel coal is 2.
406 million tons, an increase of 16.
8%
over the planned volume in July.
Among them, the planned gasoline volume was 537,000 tons, an increase of 16.
8% from the previous month; Diesel planned volume of 1.
036 million tons, an increase of 17.
7% month-on-month; The planned amount of kerosene was 833,000 tons, an increase of 15.
7%
from the previous month.

1.
The export profit of gasoline and diesel is relatively considerable

From the perspective of the theoretical profit of gasoline and diesel exports: in the first half of the year, the export profits of gasoline and diesel showed a stable upward trend, and the average arbitrage of gasoline exports fell from the high of 498 yuan / ton in January to the average of 102 yuan / ton in February, and then rose to 575 to 2576 yuan / ton
in March, April and May.
The average profit of diesel in January and February showed an arbitrage loss of -36 to -310 yuan / ton, and then gradually exerted force in March, and the average monthly arbitrage of exports rose from 726 yuan / ton in March to 1200-2600 yuan / ton
in the middle of the year.

At present, to the middle and late July, the second half of the gasoline and diesel export arbitrage has narrowed, as of now, the average gasoline and diesel arbitrage in July is 1230-1618 yuan / ton, down 39-52% from the previous month, mainly crude oil pullback, Singapore refined oil market prices with the downward trend, while the domestic gasoline and diesel prices cost is high, the decline is less than the Singapore market decline, resulting in a corresponding narrowing of export arbitrage, but the year-on-year is still running positively, the increase is 630-4100%, which is
。

2.
Changes in the proportion of exports of steam, diesel

From the perspective of the export of steam and diesel coal, the total export volume of refined oil products in the first half of 2022 was 11.
94 million tons, of which gasoline exports accounted for 46.
7%, down 41.
63% year-on-year; Diesel exports accounted for 17.
35%, down 84.
1% year-on-year, higher than the decline of 42.
5 percentage points of gasoline, mainly because the profit space of diesel exports has been lower than gasoline for a long time, and it was in an inverted state
in January and February at the beginning of the year.
At this stage, gasoline and diesel have an arbitrage space of 1200-1600 yuan / ton in July, and diesel arbitrage began to catch up with gasoline, so from the perspective of August export plan, diesel export plan is higher than gasoline
.
The export volume of aviation coal in the first half of the year rose by 15% year-on-year, and it still showed an upward trend in August, mainly because aviation coal was boosted by the recovery of international market demand, and the export volume expanded
accordingly.

3.
Changes in the progress of the completion of refined oil exports in the first half of the year

In the case of considerable export arbitrage in the first half of the year, the completion progress of refined oil export quotas is not as good as the same period last year, mainly in the European and American markets in the summer oil peak, resource tension to boost the price of the case all the way up, the domestic supply is the mainstay, the export progress has slowed down
.
The completion progress of the export quota of finished gasoline and diesel in the first half of the year was 68.
23%, compared with the completion progress of 73.
15% in the same period of 2021, down 4.
92%
year-on-year.

By mid-to-late July, gasoline and diesel export arbitrage narrowed slightly, but the issuance of new quotas stimulated the market to brew exports again, if according to market rumors in August export plan of more than 2 million tons, and can be achieved as scheduled, in the case of not yet issued new export quotas, it is estimated that the export progress in January to August will continue to increase
.

4.
Conclusion: The refined oil "gold nine silver ten" can be expected

In order to alleviate the pressure of domestic supply and demand, the August refined oil export plan will be issued soon, which involves the main business and private refineries, and the news said that diesel export plans accounted for the highest proportion, to 43%; It is followed by aviation coal 33%; Gasoline is at least 23%.

With the completion of the export task in August, the domestic supply is reduced, to a certain extent, the price is supported, and August is about to prepare for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", there is a hoarding plan, from the traditional demand peak season, if the cost of crude oil does not appear a large correction, the demand for refined oil is still good
.