August 4 aluminum market noon evaluation

Overnight, Lun aluminum retreated to close the midfield, opening slightly lower at $
2585 today.
Shanghai aluminum overnight high fell back to close Xiaoyang, closing at 19740
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are declining, and market sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see
.
Global aluminum demand is better, driven by the external disk, Shanghai aluminum short-term shock, the medium term may continue to fluctuate
upward.
Upper pressure 20500, lower support 19000
.

Recently, due to the impact of power supply and floods, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been continuously damaged, even under the regulation of storage, the gap between supply and demand is still expanding, and the support of fundamentals is very solid
.
Points that need to be vigilant: First, the rapid destocking situation in the past two weeks is to a certain extent related to the obstruction of transportation, and after the transportation gradually returns to normal, the possible concentrated arrival phenomenon leads to an increase in inventory, causing a certain correction in aluminum prices; Second, the domestic epidemic has spread, and the uncertainty of demand and sentiment has increased, which may have a certain impact
on prices.

On the whole, the limited domestic supply under the background of dual carbon is the core logic supporting aluminum prices, and there are short-term inventory changes and sentiment impacts, but the overall high operation of aluminum prices has not changed
.