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In March, natural rubber showed a volatile downward
trend under the suppression of the market atmosphere and the weak downstream demand due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The supply side remained low, and Hainan powdery mildew affected or delayed the start of cutting, but market concerns intensified under the outbreak of the epidemic, and it is expected that the increase in terminal demand in April will be limited, and Shanghai rubber will continue to fluctuate
.
If the tire factory continues to consume finished product inventory raw material replenishment demand, Shanghai rubber may usher in a phased rebound
.
Due to the domestic epidemic, short-end demand has caused a decline in terminal logistics, while the obstruction of raw material transportation has affected downstream starts, the market's willingness to chase higher is low, the sustainability of the plate rebound is weak, and the price level remains volatile
.
On the supply side, Yunnan area recently Banna more light rain, less glue, price temporarily stable, the current Xishuangbanna production area raw materials gradually increased, the early cutting of leaves growth is good, rain, glue dry content is low
year-on-year.
It is expected that the level of full-scale cutting will be reached in early April, and the price of glue in the dry rubber plant this week is 11.
6-12.
1 yuan / kg, which is the same as last week, and the price of raw materials in the latex plant is 12.
0-12.
4 yuan / kg, which is also the same
.
Qingdao's natural rubber stocks peaked in March, but whether it is an inflection point remains to be seen
.
At the beginning of the year, Tianjiao arrived in Hong Kong in a centralized manner, and briefly accumulated storage
during the Spring Festival.
With the slowdown in the arrival of imported rubber to Hong Kong in March, tire factories stocked up in advance under the influence of the epidemic, and inventories were deteriorated
.
As of the end of March, Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 440,000 tons, down 6.
96% month-on-month and 39.
09%
year-on-year.
Among them, the stock in the bonded area is 116,700 tons, and the general trade inventory is 323,300 tons
.
At present, the supply and demand of Tianjiao are weak, and it is difficult to significantly improve demand in the short term, and it is expected to maintain volatility
.
In the medium and long term, the current social inventory has begun to degrade
.
If the epidemic is controlled, inventory continues to deteriorate, and the purchase demand or improvement under the continuous consumption of factory terminal inventory, rubber may usher in a phased rebound
.
