At present, the market is still divided and aluminum prices should not be bearish

During the National Day, the price of Lun aluminum remained high and the amplitude was small
.
News: In early October, the price of two alumina transactions in Western Australia rose to more than $470 / ton, up 5% from the pre-holiday price and approaching a new high
in the year.
The industrial electricity price in Guangdong has been adjusted since October 1, and the peak electricity price will increase by 25% in the peak section; Henan plans to implement time-of-use electricity prices
from November.
The dual control of energy consumption interferes with both ends of supply and demand, and the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity forms compression, and the production capacity of Wenshan Prefecture in Yunnan will be reduced by 50%, which is expected to affect the production capacity
of 320,000 tons.

In terms of fundamentals, SMM aluminum ingot inventory on the 30th reported 815,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the 23rd; in the same period, the inventory of steel-linked aluminum rods reported 174,500 tons, an increase of 07,000 tons from the 22nd.

In August, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 490,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons month-on-month, and exports increased steadily; imports of primary aluminum were 104,000 tons, down 75,000 tons
.
Energy consumption dual control and power limit pressure, several provinces to limit the production of electrolytic aluminum, according to steel union data, Guangxi limited production of 420,000 tons, Inner Mongolia limited production of 420,000 tons, Yunnan limited production of 1.
14 million tons, and according to SMM research, Qinghai, Ningxia electrolytic aluminum will join the production reduction, Qinghai is expected to limit production by 30%, Ningxia an aluminum plant limited production of 80,000 tons, production restrictions have not stopped, and the market still has limited production pressure in some areas
.
In terms of consumption, the pressure of limited electricity and high aluminum prices, downstream production reduction, weakening demand, significantly expanding spot discounts, large discounts before the holiday, and poor demand for stocking
.

On the macro front, the US Senate has reached an agreement on extending the emergency debt ceiling until early December, and the US debt ceiling issue has eased, but the energy crisis has triggered inflation and interest rate hikes, and the market risk aversion has risen sharply; The U.
S.
trade policy toward China has slowed down, and China and the United States have once again opened dialogue
.
The Fed's FOMC meeting is expected to implement taper within the year, but the current market is still divided, and it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the strategy, macro liquidity is still abundant, superimposed on dual control of energy consumption and power rationing, aluminum prices are not bearish
.