April 9 aluminum market noon comment

Overnight, Lun aluminum rose sharply to close Zhongyang, and opened flat to $2285.
5 today
.
Shanghai aluminum rose sharply yesterday, and the night high fluctuated to close the doji, closing at the 5-day moving average of 17540
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are basically stable, and market sentiment is biased towards
neutrality.
Rumors of selling stocks faded, market sentiment recovered, and the medium term may fluctuate to the upside
.
Upper pressure 18000, lower support 17000
.

In terms of fundamentals, the future supply side is expected to remain strong under high profits, but the closure of the import window or the impact on the later import volume can also be seen that the current aluminum price is in a pattern of strong outside and weak inside; In terms of demand, high-priced aluminum still has a certain restrictive effect on the downstream, downstream procurement is still more cautious, which is compared with last year lack of willingness to stock up, at this time investors should pay more attention to the change of social inventory, the current many investors hope to go to the warehouse to verify the strong demand
.
The fundamentals are in a stage where expectations diverge from the present, and the downstream performance has not exceeded expectations, but the downstream is also wrapped up in the market when the peak season comes, and there is a situation
where it has to be purchased at a high price.
Recently, I have communicated with some market participants and found that the market sentiment is still high, and aluminum prices may enter a wide range of shock finishing stage
.