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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2206 reported 20820 up 110, and LME March aluminum closed at 3116 up 34
.
On the macro front, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio of foreign exchange by 1% to 8%, signaling a stable exchange rate; Russia announced that it would cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, because the latter did not use rubles to settle, and the Russian-European conflict escalated
significantly.
The dollar index broke through 103 points on expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in early May and again in June and July, as well as the escalation
of the Russian-European energy conflict.
At present, the pressure at the macro level is still obvious
.
Overseas, the recent market expectations for 22-year global economic growth have further declined, tightening monetary policy has also made the US dollar continue to strengthen, and non-ferrous metals are under strong pressure
.
Domestically, the epidemic has broken out in many points and a large area, and under strict control policies, on the one hand, it has had a negative impact on market sentiment, and on the other hand, it has also made economic growth face a severe test
.
From a fundamental point of view, the growth of the supply side of electrolytic aluminum has accelerated, but the demand side has been suppressed
by the epidemic in the short term.
On the whole, the sharp decline of the stock market and the RMB stopped, the market risk sentiment stabilized, the aluminum fundamentals gradually improved, the inventory continued to deteriorate, the confidence of the domestic market is expected to stabilize after the holiday, the overseas Fed's interest rate hike policy eased, and the market confidence warmed up after the holiday and the basic resonance was good before the mid-term holiday; The short-term market sentiment is stable, and the enthusiasm for replenishment of the downstream dip is high, and it is recommended to go long
on the dip.
