April 27 aluminum market brief commentary

Last Friday, Lun aluminum rushed back down and rose slightly, and today opened slightly higher around $1516, and Lun aluminum continued to fluctuate
.
Shanghai aluminum opened low and rose slightly on Friday, and may open slightly higher with the outside market today
.
There is cost support for the current price of Shanghai aluminum, but the demand side is poor, and the current volatile market may continue in the short term
.
Shanghai aluminum upper pressure 60-day moving average 12700, lower support 20-day moving average 11800
.

With the stabilization of overseas stock markets and strong policy stimulus in various countries, macro sentiment has rebounded, but at present, overseas stock markets have rebounded more, and the US stock market earnings ratio has returned to historical highs, and favorable policies may be difficult to support macro sentiment to continue to rise
。 At present, the specific downstream enterprises in China gradually improve the resumption of work, but the operating rate is still low compared with the same period last year, in April aluminum processing enterprise operating rate, aluminum plate and foil, aluminum profiles, aluminum cables and recycled aluminum alloy enterprises operating rate has fallen year-on-year, the current domestic aluminum inventory into a small destocking, social inventory accumulation around 1.
48 million tons, downstream consumption began to improve, but the current price of alumina is weak, electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprise profits are eroded, The reduction in the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina is also less than expected, according to statistics, the recent production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is about 400,000 tons, observing the subsequent production reduction and expansion
.

In the short term, the positive factors are greater than the bearish factors, and the tight supply situation in the spot market has not been significantly alleviated, aluminum prices still have room to rise, and the short-term operation idea is still to bargain and go long
.
However, it should still be soberly seen that the aluminum market from the total supply and demand comparison, or oversupply, although the phased price will lead to an increase in prices, but with the end of May off-season, aluminum prices or out of the high downward trend
.
Therefore, it is necessary to be cautious and the rebound height is as high as 13,000
.