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Aluminum market afternoon comment: oil prices fell, the next week Lun aluminum opened high and closed down 1.
76%; In China, Yunnan and other places have resumed production of electrolytic aluminum, and the epidemic situation is still severe and transportation restrictions have dragged down consumption, and aluminum is expected to fall
today.
Thermal coal was basically flat on Friday, and Lun aluminum opened high and low, turned lower and closed in the shade, opening slightly lower at $
3232 today.
The main contract of Shanghai aluminum has switched to the 2206 contract, and opened low and fell on Friday night to close at 21525
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are rising, and market sentiment is more optimistic
.
The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to be becoming more intense, and market uncertainty is high
.
Shanghai aluminum short-term volatility, the epidemic situation in Shanghai tends to stabilize in the medium term, market sentiment improves, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend
.
The upper pressure is 24000, and the lower support is 21000.
At present, the mismatch between domestic supply and demand caused by the epidemic and the opening of the export window caused by the energy crisis still exist, and the new variable is the continuation of the high supply situation brought about by the high start of domestic electrolytic aluminum
.
Because the demand post-setting is generally accepted by the market, the market is also trading the future supply and demand mismatch repair, but from the current observation of the domestic epidemic situation, it can be seen that the inflection point has not been obviously observed, and with the further deepening of the domestic supply and demand mismatch, the market has the possibility of ushering in a short-term rapid adjustment and the probability is increasing
.
At present, the policy to ensure the smooth transportation is gradually increasing, the epidemic control has led to the obstruction of transportation and needs to continue to observe, the supply side: because profits remain high, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production is still underway, and the supply of production capacity is still increasing
.
In summary, under the current situation of high supply, the continuation of supply and demand misalignment will lead to the possibility
of short-term rapid decline in aluminum prices.
