April 21 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From the demand side, the peak season has just been strong, real estate and grid demand has started and home appliances, packaging and other fields continue to consume, but the problem of automotive "lack of core" production has recently begun to be transmitted to aluminum demand, the corresponding orders have decreased, and it will take time to solve the problem of core shortage, and the consumption of the automotive sector may not be as expected
.

In the middle of the week, the General Administration of Customs announced that the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March was 443,000 tons, an increase from the previous month, but compared with the same period of previous years, the high ratio of internal and external values in early March suppressed exports, and the recent decline in the ratio coupled with the recovery of overseas demand is expected to continue to improve
in April.
On the supply side, due to power construction problems, the launch of new production capacity in Yunnan slowed down, while production cuts in Inner Mongolia continued, and supply growth slowed down
.

At present, with the aluminum price climbing to a high level, some electrolytic aluminum enterprise profits have exceeded 4500 yuan / ton or more, and upstream and downstream profits have further narrowed, the market supply is tight again, short-term can continue to pay attention to the domestic inventory of the dematerialization, if it can be stabilized, then basically face the high aluminum price or still have some support, in addition, we should also pay attention to the market capital trend, beware of the risk of falling, Shanghai aluminum main focus on 1.
78-18,100 range fluctuations, operation can be a small amount of on-demand stocking, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum
。