April 2021 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

First, the fundamentals

1.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's output of ten non-ferrous metals from January to March was 16.
05 million tons, an increase of 11.
7%
year-on-year.
Among them, in March, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
28 million tons, an increase of 8.
5%
year-on-year.
From January to March, China's electrolytic aluminum production accumulated 9.
76 million tons, an increase of 8.
8%
year-on-year.

2.
Data show that China's alumina production in March 2021 was 6.
302 million tons, up 15.
7% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 203,300 tons, a decrease of 04,700 tons from 208,000 tons per day in February 2021, and the daily output of some enterprises for maintenance in March led to a slight decline
in daily output.

3.
Customs data shows that China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March 2021 were 443,500 tons, a decrease of 47.
34% from 842,1249 tons in January-February 2021, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.
55%; The export value was 1,373.
7 million US dollars, an increase of 0.
37%
year-on-year.
From January to March 2021, the cumulative export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 1.
2855 million tons, an increase of 8.
3% year-on-year; The cumulative export value was 3,936.
5 million US dollars, an increase of 22.
6%
year-on-year.

4.
Data show that China's alumina imports in the first two months of 2021 totaled 487,900 tons, down 29.
30% year-on-year, compared with 690,000 tons in the same period last year; In the first two months, China's alumina exports totaled 18,500 tons, down 38.
45% year-on-year, compared with 30,000 tons in the same period last year; In the first two months, China's net alumina imports totaled 401,200 tons, down 39.
21%
year-on-year.

5.
According to a Reuters survey, the average price of spot LME aluminum in the third quarter is expected to be $2,188 per tonne, down 8.
6%
from current levels.
Compared with the January survey, the forecast market surplus has been revised down by about a third to 770,000 tons
.

6.
According to data from the International Aluminium Association, in March 2021, global alumina production was 5.
725 million tons, an increase of 10.
37% month-on-month and 4.
97%
year-on-year.
In the first quarter, the cumulative output of alumina reached 16.
639 million tons, compared with 16.
065 million tons in the same period of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 3.
57%; Production in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 16.
815 million tons, down 1.
05%
month-on-month.

Second, the market review

In April, aluminum prices continued to rise, Shanghai aluminum rushed high pace, the main month rose to 19,000 yuan / ton, but now, Wanjiu still has some pressure, failed to effectively stand, as of the end of the month, Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract closed at 18990, up 10.
7%; In April, Lun aluminum continued the rally of the previous month, the overall market continued to improve, Lun aluminum broke through the 2400 mark and continued to rise, the highest reached 2433 US dollars / ton, as of the end of the month, the cumulative increase from the previous month increased by 9.
1%.

In terms of the market, the supply of electrolytic aluminum market in April is still abundant, and the holders are actively shipping at high prices, but with the soaring price to a new high, downstream enterprises are afraid of heights gradually spreading, most factories replenish goods on demand, some enterprises consume their own inventory, and there are not many stockpilers; Traders are mainly fast forward and fast out, and as consumption continues to recover during the peak season, it is expected that the spot market transaction in May will remain hot
.

East China, in April, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has gradually begun to stabilize the stage, in the middle of the month by the downstream demand sharp rise superimposed macroview expectations driven, aluminum prices high up, breaking through the year's new high, the highest rise to around 19,000, Shanghai aluminum gradually stood at a high of 18,000, as of the end of the month, East China spot aluminum prices between 18810-18850 yuan / ton, up 1390 from the end of March, up 8.
02%.

In South China, as of the end of April, the price of aluminum ingot tickets in South China was between 18,800-19,000 yuan / ton, up 1,430 yuan / ton from the end of March, an increase of 8.
12%; In terms of the spot market, the overall orders of South China aluminum profile enterprises in April increased compared with the previous month, but they were worse than last year, and the high price inhibited the performance of downstream and downstream receipts
.

3.
Inventory

As of the end of April, LME aluminum inventory reported 1796925 tons, down about 149625 tons from the end of April, down about 7.
69%.

In April, the overall Shanghai aluminum inventory showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the mid-month inventory gradually deteriorated, and as of April 25, it fell by 1,014 tons, or 0.
2%,
compared with the end of March.

Fourth, the waste market

In April, the price of scrap aluminum market in various places rose sharply, the aluminum ingot market fluctuated greatly, and the market quotation range widened
.
By the end of April, the price of scrap aluminum in the South China market rose by about 1,000 yuan, and the mainstream price of local aluminum alloy spray coating was around 14,000, aluminum wire was around 16,000, and mechanical aluminum was around
14,000.
The mainstream price of aluminum alloy spray coating in East China is around 13800, and the cans are around
12000-12200.

In terms of market transactions, the overall market transaction of the scrap aluminum market in April was acceptable
.
In particular, the supply of 1 series scraps, aluminum wire, cans and other sources is selling well, and the price of aluminum wire in South China and East China has exceeded 16,200.

Under the influence of the peak season, corporate orders have improved, market inquiries have increased, the situation of short supply and demand has continued, and the market bullish atmosphere is still relatively strong
.
Scrap aluminum may
continue to rise after the festival.

5.
Market outlook

This month's peak season consumption exceeded market expectations, social inventory continued to degrade, although it is inferior compared to the past, but we should also consider the accelerated release of supply-side investment capacity under high profits.
Driven by the strong supply and demand situation, the aluminum price broke above 18,500 and gradually stabilized, in addition, this wave of rise is more due to the macroeconomic and policy promotion, global inflation expectations under the commodity prices are rising, non-ferrous are outstanding, long funds into the market to raise aluminum prices; on the whole, under the support of various favorable support, aluminum prices maintain a high probability of operation
.
It is expected that next month, Shanghai aluminum may continue to run at a high level, and the main force will look at the 19,000 break, and pay attention to the shock range of 1.
85-19,200
.