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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsIn China, economic indicators improved significantly in the first quarter, industrial growth accelerated significantly, profits of industrial enterprises increased sharply, and investment in fixed assets rose steadily; At the same time, financial "deleveraging" has increased, affected by the tightening of monetary policy and the introduction of new regulatory regulations, market liquidity has tightened significantly, and the cost of funds has risen
.
The CBRC requires banks to control risks
from the dimensions of leverage ratio and the proportion of assets entrusted by a single trustee.
Financial institutions have been forced to adjust their off-balance sheet business strategies in advance, and the phased capital shortage will continue to appear
.
The short-term economic recovery in the first quarter was mainly due to the two traditional drivers of real estate and infrastructure, while the actual consumption growth rate was only 8.
6%, and the uncertainty of economic growth still existed
.
Internationally, previously, Trump's new health care bill vote was stranded, global risk aversion continued to rise, and copper prices were under pressure and fell
.
Recently, although the United States reached a provisional agreement on the $1.
1 trillion spending bill, the government will not shut down before September 30, which has led to a recovery in risk appetite, but the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was less than expected, hitting a three-year low growth rate, which inevitably made the market doubt the strength of the US recovery, and it is expected that the actual progress of the US economic stimulus policy will affect
the market.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to cable network monitoring data, the domestic copper price fluctuated and fell in April, although there was a small recovery at the end of the month, but the range was extremely limited, the overall trend was relatively weak, and the price center of gravity moved
significantly down from March.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month (April 5) was 47130 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month (April 28) was 46240 yuan / ton, down 890 yuan, or 1.
89%.
Macro: On the domestic front, the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China has shrunk month by month since 2017, and China CITIC Bank has become the first bank to shrink its balance sheet, indicating that China-style balance sheet reduction is coming
.
The market believes that the reduction of China's central bank's balance sheet is not directly related
to the loosening of monetary policy.
However, following the "radish chapter" incident of Minsheng Bank, the Politburo meeting stressed the need to attach great importance to preventing financial risks and strengthening financial supervision
.
In the long run, the expectation of tightening funds continues to strengthen, putting certain pressure
on the market.
Abroad, the White House announced Trump's tax reform plan in detail, but it still needs to be passed by Congress, the market is still worried that the tax reform will be as unimplemented as the previous health care reform, the dollar index has not been boosted, maintaining a low level of consolidation, copper prices rose slightly, but as the Fed's May interest rate meeting is approaching, because it was previously said that interest rate hikes may be two or three times this year, the market will inevitably speculate again about interest rate hikes, thereby putting pressure on copper prices
.
Market: Although copper prices fell significantly this month compared with March, low prices also failed to attract merchants to enter the market for procurement, market demand did not show obvious signs of recovery, and the peak season was embarrassing again
.
The pressure on the supply side this month has weakened compared with the previous month, because some manufacturers have not many maintenance and imported copper supplies, and the market has been in short supply for a short time
.
Affected by this, spot copper this month has shown a premium state for a long time, and the good copper premium once reached about
200 yuan.
On the demand side, downstream manufacturers maintained on-demand market entry operations this month, and only increased buying operations when copper prices were around 45500, limiting extreme weakness on the consumption side
.
With such weak consumption in April, it is expected that there is no significant recovery in market demand in May, and copper prices need to seek more supply-side and macro benefits
.
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