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Today's Shanghai aluminum trend is volatile to the upside, as of the close of 3 pm, the main 2016 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 18215, up 30, or 0.
16%.
On the demand side, the demand is just strong after the arrival of the peak season, the demand for real estate and power grids has started and the continuous consumption of home appliances, packaging and other fields, but the problem of automobile "lack of core" production has recently begun to be transmitted to aluminum demand, the corresponding orders have decreased, and it will take time to solve the problem of core shortage, and the consumption of the automotive sector may not be as expected
.
In the middle of the week, the General Administration of Customs announced that the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March was 443,000 tons, an increase from the previous month, but compared with the same period of previous years, the high ratio of internal and external values in early March suppressed exports, and the recent decline in the ratio coupled with the recovery of overseas demand is expected to continue to improve
in April.
On the supply side, due to power construction problems, the launch of new production capacity in Yunnan slowed down, while production cuts in Inner Mongolia continued, and supply growth slowed down
.
Under the current historical absolute high price, the short-term rapid rise makes it take time to digest the downstream, and the suppression of consumption is obvious, or the price has fallen
.
The consumption prospects of the current peak season are still good, and due to the continuous rise in profits, the current production capacity of aluminum enterprises has been basically released, and the subsequent new production capacity is limited; Under the support of supply and demand expectations and destocking, short-term aluminum prices may temporarily stabilize above 18,000, maintaining a narrow range of volatility, the main focus is on 1.
79-18,300 range fluctuations, the upstream and downstream of the operation can be replenished on demand in a small amount, and the holders are high in shipments, and it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum shock is strong
.
