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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2205 reported 21755 up 10, short-term expectations to improve digestion, waiting for spot fundamental support
.
In terms of macro, the domestic epidemic blocked logistics and transportation, the Ministry of Transport required continuous road transportation, the State Council issued the Notice on Effectively Ensuring the Smooth Operation of Freight Logistics, Jiangsu resumed 40% of toll station traffic to ensure the stability and smooth flow of the supply chain, and the Ministry of Transport issued a unified style of key material vehicle passes; The central bank announced on the 15th that it would reduce the RRR by 25 basis points on the 25th, releasing 530 billion funds to support the financial stability of the real economic demand
.
In terms of fundamentals, the epidemic factors have led to a double decline in and out of storage, a significant decline in demand, and logistics disruptions have led to the accumulation of a lot of inventory upstream and downstream, SMM inventory on the 14th reported 1.
063 million tons, down 03,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 172,500 tons, down 11,000 tons from last Thursday; in March 2022, China exported 594,300 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to March was 1.
6283 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.
7%.
。 In February, China imported 142,800 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, down 2.
6% year-on-year; From January to February, the cumulative import volume was 336,000 tons, down 26.
2%
year-on-year.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum entered the rapid resumption stage, and the total operation increased to more than 40 million tons, higher than the same period
last year.
The overseas Russia-Ukraine crisis has intensified again, the risk of LME metal low inventory run-out has increased, the domestic supply chain has gradually improved, supply and demand have recovered, and expectations are good, but there may be a possibility of inventory rebound due to concentrated arrival in the upstream, and it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of
spot surface.
