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The overnight futures market continued to strengthen non-ferrous metals as a whole, with Shanghai aluminum standing at 18,000 and oscillating up
.
In the past two days, aluminum prices have broken through close to the 18,000 mark, mainly due to the expectation of production restrictions under the carbon neutrality policy or successively and the market's expectations for the peak season in April and May, which has a certain effect on aluminum prices and gives capital bulls momentum to increase positions
.
Citi expects aluminum demand to rise 6.
4% this year to nearly 68 million tonnes, with an oversupply of 720,000 tonnes; Next year, it will increase by 4.
6% to nearly 71 million tons, with a supply gap of 590,000 tons; Even before China reaches the effective capacity ceiling of 45 million tons per year, China's aluminum production is already facing a growing risk
of disruption.
There are concerns about China's electrolytic aluminum supply, peak season demand is still expected to be good, and spot aluminum prices are expected to rise
.
In the early stage, aluminum prices rose rapidly in the short term, and the willingness to stock downstream was suppressed, which was not conducive to the smooth transmission
of aluminum prices in the industrial chain.
Overseas, it is necessary to pay attention to the vaccination and epidemic control status in Europe and the United States, and pay attention to the progress of infrastructure projects in the United States, which may bring deviations
from market expectations.
In the short term, aluminum ingots open to destocking, the overall is strong, but the rhythm needs to be cautious, and follow-up attention to the speed and degree of
destocking.
Operating range 17500-18200
.
