April 14 aluminum market afternoon comment

At the macro level, the global epidemic situation has improved, and in the face of the economic recession that the epidemic may cause, the monetary easing policies of major central banks around the world have further increased
.

In terms of the market, the price of Chinalco East China AOO aluminum ingots was 11,800 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan
.
The outlook for the overseas epidemic is gradually clear, the growth rate of Italy and other countries has slowed down, and market confidence has recovered, but the price of alumina continues to fall, the continuous compression of upstream profits restricts the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production, short-term fundamentals remain weak, oversupply continues, and spot aluminum prices today may not rise or fall much
.

On the cost side, as domestic alumina continues to decline, the support for the cost side of electrolytic aluminum weakens; On the supply side, although some high-cost aluminum plants have entered the maintenance stage, the production reduction has not yet had a substantial impact, and most aluminum companies are still holding a wait-and-see trend, and there has not been an active production reduction, and supply pressure still exists; On the demand side, the current domestic market consumer market continues to improve, domestic orders also continue to rise, aluminum ingot social inventory recently continued to go to storage, superimposed macro sentiment improvement, aluminum prices try to repair upward, but demand sustainability determines the rebound space, in view of the second quarter of exports will be significantly suppressed, unilateral cautious participation, the industry can increase selling and insurance positions
.