Aniline prices hit a new high for the year

Since the beginning of September, the domestic aniline market has begun to rise all the way, with a monthly increase of 18%.

Entering October, the aniline market was "unabated" and ushered in the "silver ten" market
.
As of October 18, the mainstream transaction price of domestic aniline has risen to 14,000~14,600 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 15% from the beginning of October, and the cumulative increase has exceeded 33%, hitting a new high in the year, and once became a unique large-scale profitable product
in the pure benzene industry chain.

"The popularity of the domestic aniline market is mainly due to the rise in demand during the peak season and the maintenance of
production enterprises.
In addition, the high price of raw material pure benzene has also played a supporting role
in the continuous heating up of the aniline market.
Shao Huiwen, a senior commentator in the market, analyzed that in the context of profit and loss in the pure benzene industry chain, aniline can be described as thriving
.
However, as the profit space increases, risks are also accumulating, and the cross-month trend in October is worth paying attention to
.

Strong demand has pulled up the market

According to Wei Jianyang, general manager of Nanjing Kaiyan Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, since the beginning of September, the demand in the downstream industry has been strong, driving the aniline market upward
.

At the beginning of September, raw material inventories were low, and the traditional peak season arrived, coupled with the mid-autumn holiday stocking demand, the downstream enthusiasm for raw material procurement continued to increase, and the quotation of aniline enterprises continued to rise
.
In late September, near the National Day holiday, downstream enterprises were worried about the limited supply of goods and started the second stocking
.
Against the background of small inventories of aniline enterprises, market prices have been pushed up
again.
At present, the profit of aniline products has exceeded 4,000 yuan, which is a rare profitable variety
in the pure benzene industry chain.

From the next parade, since the beginning of September, the diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI) market has continued to rise, which has also supported the rise in aniline
.

Henan Chemical Industry Network information shows that the mainstream transaction price of domestic MDI rose from 14,400~14,900 yuan in early September to 16,800 yuan at the end of September, an increase of more than 13%.

Therefore, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic MDI installations exceeded 80%
in September.
Since October, the MDI market has continued to rise
moderately.
As of October 16, the mainstream transaction price of MDI has exceeded 17,000 yuan
.

The operating rate of downstream industries such as auxiliaries, pesticides and dyes has also increased
one after another.
The overall downstream demand is relatively strong, which is conducive to the higher
price of aniline.

The supply of enterprise maintenance is further reduced

The reporter learned from aniline enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places that there were more enterprises overhauling and reducing the load of aniline devices in October, and the overall market supply was reduced
.
This was one of
the main factors why the aniline market remained strong higher in October.

Specifically, the operating rate of Jiangsu Yangnong and Dongying Huatai aniline plants is 50%, the planned shutdown of 2 sets of 130,000 tons/year aniline plants in Shanxi Tianji, and the monthly memory maintenance plan of Jiangsu Fuqiang, Huatai and other aniline plants, with a total production capacity involving more than 400,000 tons/year
.

Data show that as of October 14, the operating rate of domestic aniline plants has dropped from 62% in the previous week to 57%, a decrease of 5%.

"In the context of the peak demand season, the decline in production is the main factor
driving the aniline market higher.
At the same time, due to the low inventory of aniline production enterprises, the strong intention of enterprises to raise prices, and the decline in the bargaining power of downstream enterprises, the possibility of
prices continuing to rise is not ruled out.
The 'silver ten' market may end successfully, but the reduction in trading volume will inhibit
the continued rise of the aniline market in the later stage.
Shao Huiwen analyzed
.

The high level of raw material support continues

From the perspective of aniline raw materials, both pure benzene and nitric acid prices remain high and firm, and the cost of aniline is strongly
supported.

According to Yan Shaoqi, a pure benzene trader in Henan, the pure benzene market maintained a moderate recovery trend in September, and the price rose from 7,600 yuan in early September to about
7,800 yuan at the end of the month.
After the National Day holiday, Sinopec's listing price reached 8,200 yuan, and although it fell back to 7,850 yuan on October 18, it was still above
the average price in September.

The price of nitric acid, another main raw material of aniline, also continued to be firm
.
At present, the mainstream price of nitric acid in central China is 2000 yuan, and even more than
2300 yuan in East China.

In addition, it is unlikely that the equipment operating rate of aniline manufacturers will increase significantly in the near future, which will still support
the aniline market.

However, there are also industry veterans who are cautious about
the aniline market.
Based on the inertial trend of the market and the limited social circulation, it is not ruled out that the aniline market will remain strong in October
.
However, from the perspective of technical indicators, the current aniline market has risen continuously, volume and price indicators have gradually begun to diverge, and the risks behind high-price transactions are also gathering
.
If the raw material pure benzene market begins to weaken, the production capacity gradually increases after October, and some uncertainties in the international market exist, the aniline market will be sorted out
again.
Industry insiders suggest that enterprises implement the strategy of fast forward and fast exit according to plan and adjust inventory in time to avoid high risks and seize market opportunities
.