Analysis on the future trend of soybean market

Introduction: in recent years, soybean futures prices in Dalian have fluctuated greatly with the promulgation of "genetically modified" regulations and national import and export inspection and quarantine management measures The author tries to make a brief analysis of its future market trend: if "transgenic" is not used, how the soybean market will operate will ultimately depend on the relationship between supply and demand The so-called "genetically modified" factor is just a kind of policy to temporarily change the domestic soybean supply and demand relationship, which has a certain timeliness on the market impact, and the market price will finally have a rational return In recent years, the fluctuation of soybean market price in Dalian seems to be separated from CBOT soybean, and Chinese people focus on the "genetically modified" regulations However, under such a huge negative condition, soybean prices in the international market not only did not reach a new low, but also broke through the bottom consolidation area, forming an accelerated upward trend From the current international and domestic soybean price comparison, the domestic soybean price is not significantly higher than the international soybean price due to the "genetically modified" problem, but has formed a discount with the international soybean price Let's see the price comparison between the two places specifically: CIF price B = {[CBOT price (a) + 0.4] × 36.7437 + 20}× 8.28 (exchange rate) Warehousing price = B × 1.1838 (comprehensive tax coefficient) + 69 (miscellaneous fees) (comprehensive tax coefficient includes 3% of import tariff, 13% of value-added tax, 2% of L / C opening fee, 1% of foreign trade agency fee, 5% of insurance fee, etc The miscellaneous charges include 22 yuan / ton for ship unloading, 5 yuan / ton for commodity inspection and sanitation, 12 yuan / ton for port miscellaneous charges, 20 yuan / ton for short distance storage and 10 yuan / ton for other miscellaneous charges.)
According to this formula, the author lists the price corresponding values of the two places as follows: CBOT price (US cents / bushel) 450 460470 480 490 500 510 520 Dalian soybean storage price (yuan / ton) 2030 2066 2102 2139 2174 2210 2246 2282 and above price comparison does not include the reasonable profit of the trader (in general, the reasonable profit of the trader is 50 yuan / ton, excluding the quality premium and discount water ) From the above table, we can see that the current market price of Dalian soybean is significantly lower than the international market price (the low range is up to 80-100 yuan / ton, including reasonable traders' profits), and the future market has the inherent requirement of returning to the international soybean market price However, the rise of soybeans in the US market is not technically over yet, which has further opened up space for the domestic soybean price rise That is to say, even if there is no "genetically modified" factor in China, soybean prices will rise In addition, the upcoming implementation of domestic "genetically modified" regulations, as well as the import and export inspection and quarantine management measures to support the domestic soybean market price is more obvious At present, the domestic reaction to the favorable effect of "genetically modified" factors lags behind From the perspective of the spot market price of the main domestic soybean supply bases, the spot market price has continued to rise after the Spring Festival The start of spot price provides conditions for the rise of soybean futures price in Dalian, which will eventually promote the sharp rise of futures price The negative factors of the international soybean market have been digested in advance In recent years, American soybean producing areas have been in good weather, the planting area has become larger and larger, and the actual harvest is often much larger than expected The authoritative organizations, including the U.S Department of agriculture, have changed from the low expectation of global soybean production in the past few years to the high expectation of market production (in recent years, the expectation of South American production has been raised frequently ) This kind of authoritative forecast has an obvious effect on the market price However, it is this kind of negative expectation that plays an important role in the market that creates conditions for the future recovery of soybean price The United States Department of agriculture has repeatedly raised the expected yield of South American soybeans in supply and demand reports Once this expectation is lost, a sharp rise in prices will become inevitable Recently, the results of the research and production forecast released by the Brazilian agricultural survey agency are significantly lower than the relevant data released by the United States Department of agriculture The potential reduction of soybean production in Brazil and the persistent drought in Argentina have gradually attracted the attention of the market In the future, every low-key production expectation will become the driving force of market price upward The weather factor has been ignored by the market for many consecutive years, which has made people accustomed to a good harvest Subconsciously, the factor that has a significant impact on the market price has been weakened It seems that good weather conditions will always support the growth of production However, the climate has its own trajectory According to the Research Report of the international meteorological authority, in the next few years from this year, El Nino will enter a high incidence period, which will have a significant impact on the climate of soybean production areas including America Effective market demand will increase the price of international soybeans Since the middle and late 1990s, the international economic development speed has slowed down significantly, and some countries have even sustained negative economic growth, which has seriously suppressed the market demand South American countries, whose main export products are soybeans, all hope that the international soybean price will rise, so as to relieve their economic pressure Similarly, the U.S soybean subsidies to its own farmers are also increasing with the fall of market prices and the increasing financial burden It also hopes that soybean prices will rise However, in the past two years, the spread of mad cow disease has sharply reduced the global demand for soybeans and their products, and the soybean price has also entered a trough After that, with the effective control of BSE and the gradual economic recovery of the United States and euro area countries, the demand for normal feed and oil began to pick up At the same time, some Asian countries, represented by China, have developed at a high speed, and their demand for soybeans has risen sharply But these benefits are not valued by people According to the law of market development, people in the bear market pay more attention to the growth of supply, and people in the bull market pay more attention to the growth of demand In the past two years, the growth of soybean production in South America has been overemphasized, while the strong demand has been ignored It is this growing demand that keeps the world soybean price from reaching a new low in the harsh market environment, and returns reasonably with the continuous improvement of the macro environment To sum up, I believe that with the gradual improvement of fundamentals, the seven-year soybean bear market is coming to an end The rapid development of China's economy and the restart of the world economy will form a good market development prospect, and the continuous growth of demand will eventually lead to the arrival of the soybean bull market HPJ (author:) to feed Weibo to: