Analysis of soybean market trend in the near future

Introduction: in the near future, the market prices of soybean and soybean meal are lower than that in the earlier stage The purchase price of soybean in Heilongjiang, the main soybean producing area in China, is 1800 yuan / ton, 20 yuan lower than that in the earlier stage The port price of soybean in Shandong Province is about 2130 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal is 1830-1850 yuan / ton, and the import price of soybean in East China is 2110-2130 yuan / ton, which is lower than the previous period In view of the decline of soybean price last week, the author thinks that there are mainly the following reasons: 1 A large part of China's soybean depends on imports, so the spot market price of China's soybean will largely depend on the import quantity of China's soybean and the fluctuation of CBOT soybean price CBOT soybean prices rose sharply in the early stage and faced adjustment in the near future At the same time, factors such as improved weather in soybean producing areas in the United States also led to the decline of CBOT soybean prices last week 2 According to relevant people, in the past week, due to the lack of demand, the price of imported soybeans in China has weakened, which has also weakened the interest of Chinese importers in soybeans procurement In the early stage, the price of soybeans rose, the cost of purchasing soybeans by traders continued to rise, and the inventory increased, forcing the recent market price to fall 3 In July, there was a large number of soybean arrivals and an increase in inventories, which was also one of the main factors that caused the decline of soybean prices It is expected that soybean prices will not fall sharply in the future, mainly for the following reasons: 1 In the short term: 1 Domestic traders still think that the soybean price in the international market is too high and will enter the soybean harvest period in September The soybean price is likely to be low, so they lack interest in import However, the domestic soybean demand is stable, which forms the favorable factor of soybean price 2 Recently, the price of domestic edible oil has generally risen, the price of palm oil in the outer market has continued to rise, and the introduction of domestic genetically modified policies has resulted in a small number of domestic imports of soybean and palm oil to Hong Kong, plus the supply of rape seeds is also decreasing due to the end of the acquisition After entering July and August, due to many holidays and the strong support of palm oil price, domestic demand for edible oil is stable As long as CBOT market does not fall sharply in the short term, there is still room for the price of domestic oil market to rise, which will support the rise of soybean spot price 3 The midday weather forecast of the United States on Monday said that there will be hot and dry weather in the Midwest of the United States This forecast completely diluted the earlier weather improvement factors On that day, the CBOT soybean price should rise, and the tail market closed at the high point of the day Soybeans closed up 7.25 cents at $4.9275 a bushel in November, while soyoil closed up 28 points at 18.74 cents a pound in December This factor will also have a positive impact on the domestic soybean spot market price 4 The government's attitude towards the new regulations on the supervision of genetically modified products is not clear According to relevant people, the government has not designated which agencies will be responsible for issuing safety certificates China's quarantine authorities have stopped issuing licenses for some July and August shipments of soybeans This also caused the soybean price short-term good news 2 In the medium term: 1 The supply and demand of the world soybean market tends to balance According to the supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture in July, the growth rate of global soybean demand in 2001 / 2002 was 3.5%, the growth rate of output was 2.9%, and the gap between supply and demand was only 0.6%, which indicated that the basic balance of soybean supply and demand in this year laid a foundation for the stable soybean price 2 The sharp increase of soybean production in South America, especially in Brazil (Brazil oilseed Association predicted that the soybean planting area would increase by 10%), which is likely to exceed that in the United States, so the soybean price will not soar excessively 3 The United States recently proposed to reduce the price of loans, which will reduce the strength of American agricultural protection policy If the bill is passed, it will be a short-term negative for soybeans, and at the same time, it will curb the price of soybeans 3 In the long run: the global climate is getting worse year by year The proposal to reduce loans in the United States will also increase the hedging efforts of American commercial companies, and the demand for soybeans in the world is increasing year by year All these are the long-term factors for favorable soybean prices (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: