Analysis of wheat market in the near future

Introduction: in the near future, wheat prices in production and marketing areas have been relatively stable, and high-quality wheat prices continue to maintain a strong trend At present, the demand for wheat procurement of grain enterprises is stable, but the demand for high-quality wheat continues to maintain a strong momentum Under the influence of SARS, flour consumption of residents in the northern production area increased slightly, while that in the southern sales area decreased For the wheat market, "SARS" is only a short-term influence factor, and it is still the supply-demand relationship that determines the market situation At present, the relatively high domestic wheat inventory pressure, the stock pressing promotion activities to be launched before the new grain market, and the relatively intensive central reserve rotation activities will limit the rising potential of wheat prices MxS -- it's said that China bought soft red winter wheat MxS from the United States in the early stage It's said that on April 25, the U.S market generally said that China has bought 50000 tons of soft red winter wheat from Cargill, which was shipped and exported from the U.S Gulf in July The CNF transaction price is 150 dollars / ton Due to the relatively low export sales of soft red winter wheat in the United States this year, the current price of soft red winter wheat is relatively low, but still higher than the same period last year On July 25, the FOB price of soft red winter wheat in the U.S Gulf was US $118 / T; in May, it was US $127 / T, compared with us $116 / T in May last year Although China is not the main buyer of American wheat, according to traders, if the CNF price of American soft red winter wheat remains around 150 US dollars per ton, China may buy more American wheat China imported 162000 tons of American wheat in 2002 and 20000 tons in the first quarter of 2003 MxS -- the price of common wheat in the production area continues to be strong Recently, the average ex warehouse price of new common durum wheat in the middle of Hebei Province (Shijiazhuang) is 1110-1120 yuan / ton, and in the south of Hebei Province (Handan) is 1110-1120 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage The higher ex warehouse price in the middle and south of Hebei Province has reached 1140 yuan / ton The average ex warehouse price of new common durum wheat in the north of Henan (Anyang) is 1080-1000 yuan / ton, that in the middle (Zhengzhou) is 1080-1100 yuan / ton, and that in the South (Luohe) is 1060-1080 yuan / ton, which is the same as the previous period The average ex warehouse price of new common durum wheat in central Shandong (Jinan and Tai'an) is 1110-1120 yuan / ton, that in eastern Shandong (Weifang) is 1120-1130 yuan / ton, and that in western Shandong (Liaocheng, Heze and Jining) is 1110-1120 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in earlier period MxS - the price of common wheat in the market area is relatively stable The price of common wheat in the market area of MxS continues to be stable In Fuzhou area, the delivery price (including packaging) of medium-sized Shandong white wheat boat board is concentrated at 1200-1220 yuan / ton, and that of medium-sized Jiangsu red wheat is 1200-1220 yuan / ton; in Xiamen area, the price of Shandong white wheat boat board is 1200-1210 yuan / ton, and that of Henan white wheat is 1190-1200 yuan / ton; in Guangzhou area, the price of medium-sized white wheat boat board is 1260 yuan / ton, and that of medium-sized red wheat is 1260 yuan / ton/ Tons, the price of soft white wheat board is 1230 yuan / ton, and the price of medium white wheat produced in Shandong is 1260 yuan / ton; the price of medium white wheat arriving at the factory in Tianjin is 1160-1170 yuan / ton, and the price of real white wheat is 1120-1130 yuan / ton The above prices are flat with the previous period MxS -- high quality and strong gluten wheat futures prices continue to consolidate the pattern of MxS high quality and strong gluten wheat futures prices continue to consolidate, and trading volume keeps a steady growth trend The registered number of strong gluten wheat warehouse receipts did not increase, but the effective forecast number of strong gluten wheat warehouse receipts increased to 3878 The main contract in September failed to break through 1800 yuan / ton again On April 26, the contract closed at 1788 yuan / ton in September, down 2 yuan / ton compared with the previous period In November, the contract closed at 1776 yuan / ton, up 6 yuan / ton compared with the previous period MxS -- the price of high-quality wheat in the production area remained firm The ex warehouse price of 8901 in the middle of Hebei (Gaocheng) was 1220-1240 yuan / ton, and that of 8901 in the South (Hengshui) was 1220-1240 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the earlier stage The price of Yumai 34 in the middle of Henan (Zhengzhou) is 1220-1240 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that in the earlier stage, and the price of new Gaoyou 503 is 1220-1240 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage; the price of Yumai 34 in the North (Anyang) is 1210-1220 yuan / ton, and Gaoyou 503 is 1220 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage; the price of Yumai 34 in the North (Puyang) is 1210-1220 yuan/ Tons, Gaoyou 503 is 1240 yuan / ton, which is the same as the previous period The price of 17 car plates in Jinan, south of Shandong Province (Heze) is 1210-1220 yuan / ton, and 8901 is 1240-1250 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage MxS -- the price of new high-quality wheat in the sales area is basically stable MxS the price of 17 car boards in Jinan, Shandong, Henan, Henan, Henan is 1370 yuan / ton, and Hebei 8901 is nearly 1400 yuan / ton; the delivery price of wheat in Yannong 15, Guangzhou station is 1360 yuan / ton, and Jinan 17 is 1370 yuan / ton; the delivery price of Hebei 8901, Shekou port is 1430 yuan /Tons, 1370 yuan / ton for Jinan 17 and 1360 yuan / ton for Yumai 34 The above prices are flat with the previous period MxS -- the price of imported wheat from national reserve keeps stable The price of imported wheat from national reserve rotation in MxS sales area keeps stable In the near future, the supply quantity of imported wheat from national reserve rotation is relatively sufficient Before 1999, Shekou port of Guangdong produced 1210 yuan / ton of imported aomai (24% gluten), 1360 yuan / ton of added wheat (32% gluten), 1250 yuan / ton of American soft wheat, 1150 yuan / ton of American hard wheat, 1920-1930 yuan / ton of newly produced No.1 added wheat, 1200 yuan / ton of Fujian Xiamen Hong Kong Macao white hard wheat, 1350 yuan / ton of added wheat (28% gluten and above)/ Tons, 1300 yuan / ton for soft wheat and 1180 yuan / ton for hard wheat The above prices are basically the same as the previous period MxS - "SARS" will not lead to a large increase in wheat demand Because of the impact of the "SARS" epidemic, some cities began to see residents queuing up to buy flour and flour food The author believes that the psychological and economic capacity of urban residents has been significantly enhanced Therefore, it is a normal phenomenon rather than a rush to purchase to increase procurement in a short time and avoid excessive going out After the government promises to ensure the supply, the procurement of flour tends to be stable The elasticity of flour consumption price is small, and the rise of flour price will not cause the residents to follow suit Therefore, SARS will not lead to a significant increase in wheat demand MxS flour consumption in China is mainly concentrated in the northern region, and the consumption habit is to replace the processed flour with the finished products such as steamed bread, pancakes or noodles "SARS" may lead some residents to re purchase flour, but the consumption of flour in restaurants, restaurants, organs and other industries will decline The consumption of flour in the south of MxS will decrease slightly under the influence of SARS Flour consumption in Guangdong and other areas is concentrated outside the family, and the main food consumed by the family is basically rice According to the response of flour enterprises, the demand of flour market in the southern market tends to be depressed obviously, and the situation of flour sales is not optimistic Mxs