Analysis on the trend of domestic wheat market in the near future

Introduction: in the near future, the domestic wheat market trading is still light, the price trend in most regions is stable, and there is a small drop in some regions Among them, the average ex warehouse price of new ordinary durum wheat in central Hebei (Shijiazhuang) is 1110-1120 yuan / ton, and that in Northern Henan (Anyang) is 1060-1080 yuan / ton, the same as that at the end of February; the average ex warehouse price of new ordinary durum wheat in central Shandong (Jinan, Tai'an) is 1090-1100 yuan / ton, the same as that in 2 At the end of the month, the delivery price (including packaging) of medium-sized Shandong white wheat boat board in Fuzhou area was concentrated at 1240 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of February, the price of second-class Shandong white wheat car board in Xiamen area was 1210-1220 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of February The reasons are as follows: first, the stimulating factors of flour demand during the Spring Festival are not strong, and the demand for wheat is still in the off-season after the festival, which leads to the weakening of wheat demand; second, the flour processing enterprises still have some wheat stocks after the festival, so they are not eager to prepare goods when the demand for flour is reduced, and the operating rate is not high; third, the farmers are reluctant to wait and see, and the market transaction is light; fourth, some wheat production areas suffer from serious diseases, pests and drought Qq7 looks forward to the future market As the stock flour is gradually consumed by the market, the flour processing enterprises will increase the operating rate, and the demand of the domestic wheat market will increase Can the domestic wheat market maintain a stable trend? Next, the author analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the domestic wheat market Qq7 1 The sown area and yield of domestic wheat decreased, which promoted the price rise According to the report of the national grain and oil information center, the sown area of national wheat in 2003 is expected to be 22.3 million hectares, down 5.11% compared with the previous year; the winter wheat yield in 2003 is expected to be 80.59 million tons, down 2.96% compared with the previous year; the average yield per hectare is expected to be 3950 Kg, an increase of 2.25% over the previous year; the sown area of winter wheat will drop to 20.4 million hectares, a decrease of 5.12% over the previous year; the sown area of spring wheat is expected to be 1.9 million hectares, and the output is expected to be 5.8 million tons, a decrease of 6.89% over the previous year At the same time, in recent years, diseases and insect pests in some main wheat producing areas are more serious, and the drought in a few places is still continuing, which to a certain extent affects the wheat production in China this year The decline of wheat production will promote the rising of wheat price in the future Qq7 2 Domestic wheat stocks are still high, and market pressure still exists Although China's wheat production has been decreasing year by year and the overstock of domestic inventory has been alleviated, in recent years, while the wheat production has been declining continuously, the wheat consumption and flour output of China's flour processing industry have also been declining in recent years Therefore, the domestic wheat inventory is still high, the proportion of aged grains is still prominent, and the rotation pressure still exists Recently, major provinces have held wheat sales and auctions It is reported that there will be 2.5 million tons of stale grain to be auctioned in Sichuan in late March, and 500000 tons of stale grain to be disposed in Jiangsu The low price wheat market will flow into the market, which may produce some pressure on the market in the short term, and hinder the wheat price rise Third, the export of wheat has a good momentum, and the export volume is expected to continue to increase In 2002, China became the first stage net wheat exporter, and this good momentum will continue this year According to the data provided by the General Administration of customs, in January this year, China exported 40200 tons of wheat, a year-on-year increase of 157%; imported 33600 tons of wheat, a year-on-year decrease of 79.7% At the same time, according to the analysis of relevant experts, although China's wheat tariff quota will be increased to 9.05 million tons this year, due to the limited increase in the world's main wheat production and domestic production, the wheat price in the international market is expected to remain at a high level, so it is expected that the wheat import will not increase much, and China's wheat export situation will continue to be optimistic At the same time, according to foreign telegrams, COFCO expects to export more than 800000 tons of wheat this year, which also means that the good momentum of China's wheat export will continue, and the increase of export quantity will form a support for the rising of wheat price to some extent Q4 It is expected that China will continue to narrow the implementation scope of protection price this year Last year, the governments of Jiangsu, Hubei and Tianjin have gradually stopped purchasing wheat from farmers according to the protection price In most areas of Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi Province, the local governments continue to implement the protection price system But in 2003, more provinces are likely to abolish protected prices in the first half of 2003 and let the market decide their own prices Therefore, in the first half of 2003, the purchase interest of users is likely to weaken, and the demand for wheat will decrease, which will have a certain impact on its price Qq7 5 The world's wheat production will increase, the demand will decrease, and the export demand will be sluggish The price will decline This year, the output of the world's major wheat exporting countries, such as the United States, Canada, Argentina and the European Union, will rise rapidly The world's total wheat output is expected to increase by nearly 20 million tons, to 585 million tons The increase of wheat production in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East will reduce the world import demand by 2 million tons in 2003 / 04, which will inevitably lead to the decline of world wheat prices At the same time, according to the USDA's supply and demand report in March, due to the sluggish progress of sales and shipment, the US wheat export demand is not strong, and the export expectation is lowered by 25 million bushels compared with last month, which also makes the wheat price rise difficult Based on the above analysis, with the start of spring ploughing, farmers will cash in their surplus grain, and their reluctance to sell will be weakened The wheat market will become active again, and their prices will change However, in terms of the overall situation of the domestic wheat market, although the reduction of the domestic wheat planting area and output and the increase of the export quantity support the upward price, the policy factors such as the sale of stale grain and so on have relatively restricted the upward space of the wheat price, so it is expected that a slight increase in stability will become the main theme of the domestic wheat trend in the later period.