Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (9.11-9.15)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the overall weakness of the dollar index, the North Korean issue and the Trump administration's tax reform are also important reasons
.
Trump's tax reform policy has been confirmed to be announced this month, when the core content will also be disclosed, the tax reform showed positive signals, triggered the market to raise interest rates this year, the US index was boosted to stand on the $92 line
.
Domestically, data released by the central bank showed that the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of August was 164.
52 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.
9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was a new low
in nearly 20 months.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 15-year quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market is 13350 (-450) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 13800 (-200) yuan / ton; 15 years Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 16450 (-150) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 54.
02 (+0.
42) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 57.
25 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Field glue 55 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup glue 46.
5 (-0.
5) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene rubber 1502 market price in East China 14100 (-200) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 14500 (-200) yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of September 15, the inventory and warehouse receipt of the previous period continued to increase sharply and hit a record high, while the total rubber inventory and natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline in the middle of the year, and China's natural rubber futures inventory and spot inventory showed obvious "polarization" characteristics
。 As of September 15, 2017, the subtotal of natural rubber stocks in the previous period increased by 77,513 tons to 430735 tons from mid-June, an increase of 21.
94%, and natural rubber stock futures increased by 37,310 tons to 370,170 tons, an increase of 11.
21%, both of which continue to hit record highs
.

Fourth, downstream, the operating rate of all-steel tires in domestic tire factories has rebounded this week, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires has continued to decline
slightly.
On September 15, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.
47%, up 8.
7% from last week; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 65.
61%, down 0.
2%
from last week.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Shanghai rubber prices continued to fluctuate this week, with a large decline; Under the background of the current peak rubber production season, high inventory of tianjiao and strict environmental protection inspection, downstream enterprises have a strong potential procurement demand; The expectation of restricting exports at the September tripartite meeting may have some support for the future market of Tianjiao, but it is not ruled out that the market will have a more negative impact
on the market if it makes an early advance and over-the-top decision.
Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continues to decline, and the consideration will form support
.
Although the operating rate of steel tires has recovered due to the short-term slowdown in environmental inspections, the overall situation is not as good as the same period of previous years
.
The willingness of tire factories to replenish stocks is not high, and it is expected that the short-term downward pace will slow down
.
Rubber has no obvious long-short tendency, the market wait-and-see sentiment is heavier, and short-term Shanghai rubber maintains weak
shocks.