Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (8.8-8.12)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, according to data released by the US Department of Labor, the US producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.
4% in July, less than the expected 0.
1%, the largest decline since September last year
.
Domestically, the PPI fell by 1.
7% year-on-year in July, a decrease of 0.
9 percentage points from the previous month, and the PPI decline continued the trend of the previous month, showing a trend of continuous narrowing
.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old state-owned full latex in Shanghai was about 10,450 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,450 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area was about 10,100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free price was about 10,300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was about 10,550 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, in the week ended August 12, contrary to the continuous decline in stocks in the bonded zone, rubber stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise
.
Shanghai futures tianjiao inventory increased by 2070 tons to 353,100 tons, tianjiao market inventory is still at a historical high level, the recent domestic tianjiao market gradually cut, but the increase in the supply of tianjiao has been slow, tianjiao market price due to futures affected by the price decline
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of August 12, the operating rate of all-steel tires in the domestic tire industry is about 71.
2%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires is about 69%, and the operating rate of the downstream tire market has not changed much, and the demand for upstream Tianjiao is mainly based on rigid demand, but the tire market has not improved, and the spot price of Tianjiao is affected by futures and the price declines
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Despite the current tight supply of new rubber, the clearance of Thailand's 310,000-ton inventory and the lifting of the 60-baht ban will reduce raw material prices
.
From a fundamental point of view, due to the influence of weather and rubber tapping sentiment in domestic and foreign production areas, the delivery products have not been increased, especially the overseas performance is tight, and the port price is inverted, which makes the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continue to decline
.
In addition, the operating rate of tire factories is basically more than seventy percent, and the sales volume of the terminal heavy truck market is also good, and the industrial chain provides support
for rubber prices.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.