Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.4-7.8)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the risk of Brexit has begun to appear this week, and many European banking stocks have plunged, almost falling to historical lows during the European debt crisis
.
The Fed minutes said uncertainty in the U.
S
.
labor market and financial markets has increased and that more data and Brexit should be carefully awaited.
Domestically, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide fell by 0.
2% month-on-month and 2.
6%
year-on-year.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the price of state-owned full latex in Shanghai for 15 years was about 10,500 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; The 15-year price of Yunnan state-owned full latex in Shandong was about 10,550 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation in Hengshui was about 10,400 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; The quotation of private full latex in Yunnan in 16 years was about 107,500 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of July 8, the stock of Shanghai futures tianjiao increased by 4,530 tons to 332,700 tons, the market inventory of tianjiao is still at a historical high level, and the domestic tianjiao market has gradually opened up recently, but the supply of tianjiao has increased slowly, and the tianjiao market has risen driven by the rise in futures prices
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of July 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
5%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 72.
5%, a slight decrease
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market is sluggish, the demand for upstream tianjiao has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain bearishness to rubber prices, and the spot price trend of tianjiao has declined
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, domestic economic recovery concerns have intensified, demand expectations have weakened, and the volatility of Shanghai rubber has intensified
due to the external environment.
The market expects that domestic and foreign policies will be introduced, which is worth looking forward to, and the impact of Brexit events is still fermenting
.
On the other hand, inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and heavy-duty truck sales continued to grow sharply year-on-year in June, and China's tire exports increased by 9%, indicating that downstream demand performance was acceptable
.
With the successive cutting of domestic rubber production areas, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the price of glue has fallen, but the raw materials in the production areas have not yet been released due to the weather in the early stage
.
Volatility has increased in recent days due to increased market uncertainty
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.