Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.31-8.4)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

1.
On the macro level, People's Bank of China announced on August 1 that in July, in order to maintain the basic stability of the liquidity of the banking system and meet the temporary liquidity needs of financial institutions, the People's Bank of China carried out medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations of 360 billion yuan for financial institutions, with a term of one year and an interest rate of 3.
2%; A total of RMB13.
981 billion was carried out for standing lending facility (SLF) operations for financial institutions, including RMB680 million overnight, RMB7.
401 billion for 7-day periods and RMB5.
9 billion
for one-month terms.

2.
In terms of the market, the price quotation of natural rubber in Hengshui market fell by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current spot shippers in the region do not hold much goods, because they are pessimistic about the future market situation, so the intention to stock up is poor, and the factory is mainly based on spot procurement
.
Mainstream reference price: 15-year Baodao whole milk tax reference quotation 12300-12400 yuan / ton; 16-year Yunxiang whole milk quotation of 12600 yuan / ton; A small number of bid two quotations are 12400 yuan / ton; The quotation of imported rubber is scarce, and I heard that a few 16-year-old large manufacturers quoted 15,000 yuan / ton
.

3.
In terms of stocks, China Natural Rubber was 180,500 tons, down 20,900 tons, or 10.
38%, from the middle of last month; synthetic rubber 48,800 tons, down 04,400 tons from the middle of last month, down 8.
27%; The composite rubber held steady at 04,300 tons
.
At present, the bonded zone has basically entered the stage of inventory reduction, mainly because on the one hand, the purchase of raw materials in tire factories has increased, and on the other hand, due to the slowdown in the inbound volume and the stable outbound volume, the overall inventory has shown a downward trend
.

4.
In terms of demand, the "2017 New Energy Vehicle Blue Book" released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center on August 3 predicts that in 2017, China's domestic new energy vehicle sales will be 750,000 units, imported new energy vehicles 20,000 units, and the comprehensive is expected to reach 770,000 units
.
On the basis of ensuring the steady growth of the new energy vehicle market, the policy may be adjusted
according to the characteristics of the new stage of the industry.
Government departments will continue to study and improve relevant policies, and it is expected that investment, taxation, subsidies, industry management and other adjustments will be gradually introduced
in the coming year.

5.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website analysis shows that the current Tianjiao is gradually digesting inventory, and the situation of oversupply has been improved
to a certain extent.
It is expected that the spot quotation of Tianjiao will continue to rise
next week.