Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.18-7.22)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the total number of existing home sales in the United States in June rose 1.
1% annualized to 5.
57 million this week, better than the expected 5.
48 million and hitting a nine-year high
.
Domestically, in June this year, China's outward direct investment was 100.
17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.
9%; In the first half of this year, China's non-financial outward direct investment reached 580.
28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.
7%.

At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year state-owned full latex in Shanghai was about 11,100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 11,100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area was about 10,600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free quotation was about 10,800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was about 11,000 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of July 15, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall, which supported the price of Shanghai rubber
.
Authoritative data show that as of the end of June 2016, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 11% from the previous period to 194,400 tons, a decrease of 24,400 tons, a sharp increase
.
In terms of specific inventory varieties, the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber has declined
.
Among them, the inventory of natural rubber accounts for a large
proportion of both the decline and the absolute quantity of the reduction.

4.
In terms of demand, as of July 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 74.
31%, up 0.
37% from last week; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 73.
94%, up 1.
44%
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market has risen, and the demand for upstream tianjiao has increased, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain benefits to rubber prices, and the spot price trend of tianjiao has risen
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, affected by the downstream consumption off-season, the pace of supply from tight balance to easing in the early stage is quite slow, which will support rubber prices
to a certain extent.
Inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and heavy-duty truck sales continued to increase sharply year-on-year in June, and China's tire exports rose 9%, indicating that downstream demand performance was acceptable
.
With the successive cutting of domestic rubber production areas, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the price of glue has fallen, but the raw materials in the production areas have not yet been released due to the weather in the early stage
.
Volatility has increased in recent days due to increased market uncertainty
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.