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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a slight increase this week, and the average price of the natural rubber market at the beginning of the week remained at about 14610 yuan / ton, and rose to 14820 yuan / ton over the weekend, with a range of 1.
44%.
The overall trading atmosphere for natural rubber this week is better
than last week.
The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
1.
In terms of macro, the central bank invested 40 billion yuan on the 21st, the fifth consecutive day of net investment, and analysts said that the tightest moment of liquidity has passed
.
The People's Bank of China will conduct a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan and a 14-day reverse repurchase operation
of 40 billion yuan in the open market.
The central bank's open market will expire with 100 billion reverse repurchases on the 21st
.
This week's net investment was 510 billion, and last week's net withdrawal was 70 billion
.
2.
In terms of the market, the price quotation of natural rubber in Hengshui market fell by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current spot shippers in the region do not hold much goods, because they are pessimistic about the future market situation, so the intention to stock up is poor, and the factory is mainly based on spot procurement
.
Mainstream reference price: 15-year Baodao whole milk tax reference quotation 12300-12400 yuan / ton; 16-year Yunxiang whole milk quotation of 12600 yuan / ton; A small number of bid two quotations are 12400 yuan / ton; The quotation of imported rubber is scarce, and I heard that a few 16-year-old large manufacturers quoted 15,000 yuan / ton
.
3.
In terms of inventory, in July, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber out of the warehouse, some tire companies from the zone to a certain extent, the quantity of 2000-3000 tons, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory compared with the end of June
.
4.
In terms of demand, according to statistics, from January to June this year, the monthly sales of heavy-duty trucks were 83,000 units, 86,000 units, 115,000 units, 104,000 units, 98,000 units and 95,000 units, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 147%, 53%, 52%, 51% and 60%
respectively.
5.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this network analysis shows that the current Tianjiao is gradually digesting inventory, and the oversupply situation has been partially improved
.
Downstream demand has been strongly stimulated, and it is expected that the spot quotation of tianjiao will continue to rise
next week.
