Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.10-7.14)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

1.
On the macro front, the People's Bank of China suspended open market operations for the 12th consecutive trading day, and 30 billion reverse repurchases will expire
today.
The central bank announced that the current liquidity of the banking system is at a moderate level
after hedging the payment of government bonds and the expiration of the central bank's reverse repurchase.
Statistics show that from June 23 to July 10, the central bank has achieved a cumulative net withdrawal of 660 billion yuan
through open market operation channels.

2.
In terms of the market, the price quotation of natural rubber in Hengshui market fell by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current spot shippers in the region do not hold much goods, because they are pessimistic about the future market situation, so the intention to stock up is poor, and the factory is mainly based on spot procurement
.
Mainstream reference price: 15-year Baodao whole milk tax reference quotation 12300-12400 yuan / ton; 16-year Yunxiang whole milk quotation of 12600 yuan / ton; A small number of bid two quotations are 12400 yuan / ton; The quotation of imported rubber is scarce, and I heard that a few 16-year-old large manufacturers quoted 15,000 yuan / ton
.

3.
In terms of inventory, in early July, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber out of the warehouse, some tire companies from the zone to a certain extent, the quantity of 2000-3000 tons, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory compared with the end of June
.
As of July 10, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone were 270,800 tons, down 8,000 tons, or 2.
9%,
from June 15.
Last week's more outbound is the inventory of tianjiao, which belongs to the phased performance, the current total amount of warehousing is relatively balanced, whether the inventory in the later period continues to decline and the inventory inflection point needs to be observed and verified
.

4.
On the demand side, according to the International Automotive Organization, by 2020, China's annual automobile sales will reach 29.
7 million units
.
This means that between 2017 and 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China's automobile sales will remain at about
7.
06%.
Although this growth rate is slower
than in the past few years.

5.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this network analysis shows that the current Tianjiao is gradually digesting inventory, and the oversupply situation has been partially improved
.
Downstream demand has been strongly stimulated, and it is expected that the spot quotation of tianjiao will continue to rise
next week.