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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a slight decline this week, and the average price of the natural rubber market on Monday remained at about 14420 yuan / ton, and fell to 14250 yuan / ton over the weekend, a range of 1.
18%.
The overall trading atmosphere for natural rubber this week was not ideal
.
The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
1.
Macro, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on the 20th that the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is currently at a low level, suggesting that economic growth expectations are sluggish, and the Fed needs to be very cautious
when considering further interest rate hikes.
He said he would like to see data proving that the recent weakness in inflation is transitory and that "very cautious and patient attitude must be maintained on further rate hikes in the future.
"
The day before, Chicago Fed President Evans said that the US economy has performed quite well recently, with good economic fundamentals, but is nervous
about weak inflation.
2.
In terms of the market, the price quotation of natural rubber in Hengshui market fell by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current spot shippers in the region do not hold much goods, because they are pessimistic about the future market situation, so the intention to stock up is poor, and the factory is mainly based on spot procurement
.
Mainstream reference price: 15-year Baodao whole milk tax reference quotation 12300-12400 yuan / ton; 16-year Yunxiang whole milk quotation of 12600 yuan / ton; A small number of bid two quotations are 12400 yuan / ton; The quotation of imported rubber is scarce, and I heard that a few 16-year-old large manufacturers quoted 15,000 yuan / ton
.
3.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of Qingdao bonded port area remained high, reaching 278,800 tons as of mid-June, with an increase of 0.
65% and a higher inventory level
.
The inventory of the last period was 357,000 tons, up 3,763 tons, and the inventory of the previous period was at a high level, and the domestic price of the rubber fluctuated
.
4.
On the demand side, according to the International Automotive Organization, by 2020, China's annual automobile sales will reach 29.
7 million units
.
This means that between 2017 and 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China's automobile sales will remain at about
7.
06%.
Although this growth rate is slower
than in the past few years.
5.
Future market forecast: The analysis of this website preliminarily predicts that Tianjiao is gradually digesting inventory, but the oversupply situation has not been fully improved
.
Downstream demand has not been strongly stimulated, and it is expected that the spot quotation of tianjiao will remain weak
next week.
