Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (6.13-6.17)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the current market concerns about Brexit have escalated, and the surge in global risk aversion has helped the dollar index to strengthen again, thereby weighing on various commodities
.
Domestically, China's economic data in May was generally weak, and from the data trend, after the rapid growth of the small economic cycle, the trend of steady decline has appeared
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the price of state-owned full latex in Shanghai for 15 years was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year price of Yunnan state-owned full latex in Shandong was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation in Hengshui was about 10,550 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The quotation of private full latex in Yunnan in 16 years was about 10,600 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of June 13, Qingdao bonded zone rubber inventory continued to decline to 218,800 tons, down 5.
9% from the end of May, Shanghai futures tianjiao inventory decreased by 3,888 tons to 316,700 tons, tianjiao market inventory is still at a high level, the recent domestic tianjiao market gradually cut, but the supply of tianjiao is increasing slowly, and the tianjiao market is driven by the rise in futures prices
.

4.
In terms of demand, as of June 13, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
54%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 73.
96%, basically unchanged
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market is sluggish, the demand for upstream tianjiao has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain negative benefits to rubber prices, and the spot price of tianjiao is hovering
at a low level.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, the domestic economic recovery concerns have intensified, demand expectations have weakened, becoming one of the main lines leading the trend of industrial products, and before seeing more stimulus policies, sluggish demand will suppress the price of
industrial products such as rubber for a long time.
With the full opening of Tianjiao, the market's concern about the continuous influx of new rubber into the market in the later stage has increased, which in turn has led to the weakening of the willingness of middlemen and downstream product manufacturers to purchase raw materials and stock up, and the overall glue transaction atmosphere is bleak
.
At present, the market's concerns about Brexit have escalated, and global risk aversion has surged
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.