Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (5.9-5.13)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in terms of macro, this week, from the perspective of the four major economies in the euro area, France, Italy and Spain all rose month-on-month in April
.
France rose to 50.
2 from 49.
3 last month; Italy rose from 52.
4 to 53.
1; and Spain rose from 55.
1 to 55.
2, indicating a slight improvement
in manufacturing activity in the euro area.
Domestically, the CPI increased by 2.
3% year-on-year in April, an increase of more than 2%
for three consecutive months.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 11,200 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 11200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 11,200 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 11,700 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of May 13, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline to 244,700 tons, down 03,600 tons, or 1.
45%,
from 248,300 tons in mid-April.
Specifically, the decrease in inventory is mainly due to the impact of the decline in natural rubber inventory, and the inventory of synthetic and composite rubber has risen
.
Specifically, natural rubber was 205,200 tons, a decrease of 05,100 tons, or 2.
43%, from mid-April; The high level of overall inventory is still a factor
suppressing the current price of tianjiao.

4.
In terms of demand, as of May 13, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
54%, up 0.
28%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 75.
96%, up 0.
12%, and the operating rate continued to rise last week, which is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, which is good for rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the later operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Localized rainfall in Thailand and slight
easing of dry weather.
At present, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still declining, but the decline has narrowed
.
In May, with the domestic rubber production area successively cut, the supply and demand of raw materials is tight or eased, but the supply of the production area has not yet been released, the precipitation is still less than in previous years, the positive factors still exist, and the fundamentals do not support the futures price to continue to fall
sharply.
The pattern of short-term tight supply is difficult to break for the time being, so it is still recommended to maintain a bullish idea, and foreign production areas are facing cutting, and the supply of
new rubber will be closely paid attention to.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.