Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (5.23-5.27)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in the macro aspect, the preliminary composite PMI of the euro area in May was 52.
9, less than the expectation of 53.
2, hitting a new 16-month low; the preliminary manufacturing PMI of the euro area in May was 51.
5, a new three-month low
.
Domestically, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year in April, less than the expected 6.
5%, down 0.
8 percentage points
from March.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 9900 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui was about 10,000 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 9900 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year full latex in Yunnan was about 10,000 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the end of this week, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period reached 317,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt exceeded 290,000 tons, a record high
.
Huge inventory still cannot find an effective solution, high inventory has become the focus of the game in the Tianjiao market, and the huge hedging of industrial funds will still put pressure on the Shanghai rubber market
in the later period.
The selling pressure in the futures market is greater, which limits the upside
of Shanghai rubber.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this week, the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 69.
27%, down 1.
07%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 73.
24%, down 1.
43%.

From the confirmation of terminal export and sales data, it is difficult for the later operating rate to rise
.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market has declined, and the demand for upstream sky rubber has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain negative
benefits to rubber prices.

Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website maintains the judgment
of inter-urban shocks after Shanghai rubber.
From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, last week, the Shanghai rubber market faced the pressure of increasing supply brought about by the opening of production areas and the continuous refresh of the previous period of inventory
.
In addition, the domestic economic data weakened, the steady growth declined, good downstream demand continued to improve the height is limited, as the pressure of tight supply in the future market eases, if consumption is not further improved, oversupply will become more obvious, and the medium-term decline will remain unchanged
.
Downstream tire factories have been compressed due to the rise in raw material prices, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires has declined
.
In the medium term, downstream consumption growth will slow down
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.