Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (5.2-5.6)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in the macro aspect, the real GDP of the United States in the first quarter increased by 0.
5% annualized quarter-on-quarter, and the median expected survey value was 0.
7%, and the preliminary GDP value hit a two-year low; Domestically, in April this year, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.
1%, down 0.
1 percentage points from the previous month, and economic growth slowed down
.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 11,600 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 11,600 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 11,600 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton; The 15-year total latex in Yunnan was about 11,550 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, although the current inventory of tianjiao in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has declined, the futures inventory of the previous period continues to rise, and the overall inventory is still at a high level
.
Since the Spring Festival, due to the tight supply of tianjiao and the increase in demand for tianjiao in the downstream tire market, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has continued to fall back to 245,000 tons, and the destocking process is obvious, but this inventory level is still at a high level in the past two years, which suppresses
the spot price of tianjiao.
On the other hand, the inventory of futures in the previous period continued to increase to 297,000 tons, which was at a historical high, and the selling pressure in the futures market was greater, thus limiting the upside
of Shanghai rubber.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this week, the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 72%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises is 76%, the operating rate of the downstream tire market has declined, the demand for upstream sky rubber has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain negative
to rubber prices.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, local rainfall in Thailand and slight easing of dry weather, this year Thailand and domestic rubber production areas will be postponed
.
At present, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still declining, but the decline has narrowed
.
Downstream tire factories have been compressed due to the rise in raw material prices, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires has declined
.
In May, with the domestic rubber production area successively cut, the supply and demand of raw materials is tight or eased, but the supply of the production area has not yet increased, and many factors remain.

From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.