Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (4.18-4.22)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell to 247,000, the lowest since November 24, 1973, indicating that the labor market continues to strengthen; on the domestic front, preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product in the first quarter was 158526 billion yuan, an increase of 6.
7%
year-on-year at comparable prices.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 12,500 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of April 22, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 90 tons
compared with last week.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 260820 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 60 tons, Shandong decreased by 30 tons, Yunnan Ping, Hainan Ping, Tianjin Ping
.
The decrease in inventory is still affected
by the decline in natural rubber and composite rubber inventory.
The high level of overall inventory is still a factor
that suppresses the current price of tianjiao.

4.
In terms of demand, as of April 22, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
54%, up 0.
28%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 75.
96%, up 0.
12%, and the operating rate continued to rise last week, which is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, which is good for rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the later operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend
.
Watch for whether the late-stage operating rate can sustain this upward momentum
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Because the downstream start continues to improve and the early stage of domestic cutting, foreign countries are in the period of shutdown, and the situation that short-term supply cannot keep up still exists
.
After last week's rally, the price spread of rubber seeds has also been roughly repaired, and it will also begin to pull back after
a round of rapid rise.
The short-term tight supply pattern is difficult to break for the time being, so it is still recommended to maintain the bullish idea, the end of April and the beginning of May will be a time window worth paying attention to, foreign production areas are facing cutting, when the supply of
new rubber will be closely monitored.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.