Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (4.11-4.15)

According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber this week showed a shock rise, and the average price of the natural rubber market on Monday remained at about 10960 yuan / ton, and the weekend was raised to 11580 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 5.
66%.

This week, the shipment of tianjiao merchants is more positive, the overall market atmosphere of tianjiao is better, the transaction situation is relatively ideal, and the trading atmosphere is upward compared with last week
.

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week of April 2 was 267,000, continuing to remain at a historical low, and the data has been below 300,000 for 57 consecutive weeks, indicating that despite the slowdown in the US economy, the labor market is performing solidly; Domestically, preliminary calculations show that the GDP in the first quarter was 158526 billion yuan, an increase of 6.
7%
year-on-year at comparable prices.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 11,800 yuan / ton, up 1,000 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 11,800 yuan / ton, up 1,000 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 11,600 yuan / ton, up 1,000 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 11,800 yuan / ton, up 1,000 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of April 15, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell to 257,000 tons, down 08,800 tons, or 3.
31%,
from 265,800 tons in mid-March.
Specifically, natural rubber was 221,700 tons, a decrease of 08,200 tons, or 3.
57%, from mid-March; The decrease in inventory is still affected
by the decline in natural rubber and composite rubber inventory.
The high level of overall inventory is still a factor
that suppresses the current price of tianjiao.

4.
In terms of demand, as of April 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
26%, up 1.
14%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 75.
84%, up 0.
17%, and the operating rate continued to rise last week, which is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, good rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the late operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend, and the trend can be maintained until April
.
Watch for whether the late-stage operating rate can sustain this upward momentum
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Because the downstream start continues to improve and the early stage of domestic cutting, foreign countries are in the period of shutdown, and the situation that short-term supply cannot keep up still exists
.
After last week's rally, the price spread of rubber seeds has also been roughly repaired, and it will also begin to pull back after
a round of rapid rise.
The short-term tight supply pattern is difficult to break for the time being, so it is still recommended to maintain the bullish idea, the end of April and the beginning of May will be a time window worth paying attention to, foreign production areas are facing cutting, when the supply of
new rubber will be closely monitored.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.