Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.5-3.9)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 58.
6 in February, slightly better than the previous preliminary reading of 58.
5, but significantly lower
than the final January value of 59.
6.
Domestically, the National Bureau of Statistics previously released a manufacturing PMI of 50.
3% in February, down 1 percentage point
from January.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of spot: the quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market for 16 years was 11950 (-200) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11900 (-100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco sheet 14500 (-200) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 46 (-0.
56) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 48.
5 (+0.
01) THB/kg; field glue 49 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 37.
5 (0) baht/kg
.

Third, in terms of inventory, at present, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased to more than 254,000 tons, a significant increase of 88,000 tons
over the same period last year.
The inventory in the previous period was more than 430,000 tons, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was close to 400,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons
over the same period last year.
At the same time, there are about 150,000 tons of mixed rubber outside the bonded zone, and the stock of old rubber of the State Reserve Bureau is 540,000 tons
.
Domestic Tianjiao inventory is indeed very high
.
However, as we all know, due to the weak demand for full latex and the delivery system of the previous period, the outflow of warehouse receipts generally occurs after July or even after September
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, downstream tire factories have started work one after another, but the trading in the spot market is still light, and downstream demand is still at a low level
.
Monitoring the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 61.
04%, down 4.
93% year-on-year; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 58.
86%, down 11.
50%
year-on-year.
The operating rate of tire factories is still at a low level
compared with previous years.
Under the high-pressure situation of environmental protection this year, it is bound to have an adverse impact on downstream production demand, and the overall is difficult to say optimistic
.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast that the current price of tianjiao will continue to fluctuate overall
.
At present, the price of Shanghai rubber has not been able to get out of the shock range, and the market is waiting for new supply and demand factors to choose the direction
.
On the whole, the logic of large supply and demand has been digested, from the cost support of tianjiao, the conditions to promote the price to continue to fall are no longer available, and there is currently no factor to stimulate a sharp rebound in prices, so the recent bottom range shock consolidation, but in the long run, I personally think that the probability of breaking through the rise is greater
.