Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.21-3.25)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in the macro aspect, at present, the US dollar spot index against the 10 major currency exchange rates fell by 3.
5%, with such a downward momentum, this month the US dollar index will record the largest monthly decline since 2011; Domestically, from January to February, industrial producer ex-factory prices (PPI) fell by 5.
1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.
1 percentage points from 2015 and 0.
8 percentage points
from December 2015.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 10,750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 10,750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,750 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; The 15-year total latex in Yunnan was about 10,700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, the inventory of Shanghai rubber futures increased significantly in the week ending March 25
.
Weekly inventories of 286622 tonnes, a significant increase of 3,003 tonnes from the week of March 18; Weekly warehouse receipts 237,870 tons
.
Following the liquidation of old rubber at the end of November, warehouse receipts returned to the upward trend, warehouse receipts continued to flow in last week, and the selling pressure on the futures market continued to increase
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this week, the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 65.
87% in China; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 72.
94%, basically unchanged
from last week.
This is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, but the overall is still at a low level, from the perspective of seasonal factors over the years, the later operating rate will continue to rise
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, due to weather conditions, the opening and cutting of rubber production areas in Thailand and China will be postponed this year; The main foreign production areas are still in the period of suspension, and the domestic ones have not yet been cut
.
Therefore, the support of seasonal supply contraction can continue
in March.
The inventory outbounds in Qingdao Free Trade Zone are still greater than the inbounds, but the outbound volume is smaller than expected; Domestic tire factories have been optimistic recently, the operating rate has continued to rise, and manufacturers have accelerated stocking
.
The Indonesian government's purchase of 500,000 tons of rubber will boost the market in the short term, but this will further slow
down the process of natural rubber capacity reduction.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.