Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.13-3.17)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the US PPI annual rate rose by 2.
2% in February, better than the market's forecast of 1.
9% growth, and 1.
6% growth in January; The m/m was up 0.
3%, compared with market expectations of 0.
1% growth and up 0.
6%
in January.
Domestically, PPI rose 7.
8% year-on-year, setting a new growth rate
in recent years.
Market participants expect that the year-on-year increase in PPI may remain high, and it is expected to peak and fall
after the second quarter.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation is about 17,000 yuan / ton, up 800 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 16950 yuan / ton, up 650 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 16,500 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 16900 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of March 17, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 50 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 281890 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 320 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 370 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of March 17, at present, the downstream tire market has risen, the operating rate of all-steel tires in the domestic tire industry is about 67.
8%, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is about 72%, all-steel tires have resumed normal production, the operating rate has increased significantly year-on-year, and the operating rate is higher than the same period last year
.
Tianjiao spot is affected by all aspects of favorability, and the spot market price continues to rise
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
This week, natural rubber prices have seen an upward
trend.
Tianjiao fundamentals have not re-entered the bear market
of oversupply.
At present, it is still in the low production period
of global tianjiao.
In March, Thailand and other Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries began to stop cutting, and the domestic Yunnan gradually entered the cutting in mid-to-late March, and the glue production was scarce, and now it is mainly based on the consumption of pre-inventory, and supply and demand are still in a dynamic balance
.
The recent surge in supply stems from traders' misjudgment in stockpiling and selling, which is both to preserve profits and reduce risks due to lower costs
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber needs to continue to wait and see
in the short term.