Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.12-3.16)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, US retail sales in February were -0.
1% month-on-month, down for the third consecutive month, with expectations of 0.
3%, and the previous value was revised from -0.
3% to -0.
1%.

Domestically, China's industrial added value above designated size from January to February was 7.
2% year-on-year, 6.
2% expected, and 6.
6% in the previous month; Total retail sales of consumer goods were 9.
7% year-on-year, 9.
8% expected, and 10.
2% in the previous month; At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of spot: in terms of spot: the quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market for 16 years is 11400 (-200) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11400 (-200) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 14100 (-100) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 45.
66 (-0.
04) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 48.
7 (+0.
1) baht/kg; Field glue 48 (0) baht/kg; Cup glue 37 (0) baht/kg
.

Third, in terms of inventory, the inventory in the previous period of this year has increased significantly compared with previous years, and it has been at the highest level at the time of delivery last year, but due to the suspension of cutting in China, the growth rate of inventory has slowed down
.
As of March 16, the total inventory was 438,200 tons, a weekly growth rate of 0.
1%, warehouse receipts were 402,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1.
05%, and the number of warehouse receipts waiting for registration was 35,400 tons, which was at a normal level
.
This year, China's production area has a good climate, at present, Yunnan Xishuangbanna production area has been cut one after another, Dongfeng, Menglun, Menglong, Jingha, Jinghong olive dam and other areas have been cut, and the local rubber factory has also been ready to collect rubber, and can start collecting rubber
on the same day.
Most of the new rubber in China will be registered as a warehouse receipt, so early cutting may bring more pressure
to the inventory of the previous period.

4.
On the demand side, as of March 16, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has risen back to above 70%, returning to the normal level
before the Spring Festival.
The operating rate of all-steel tires decreased slightly to 72.
4%, 3.
38%
higher than the same period last year.
The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72%, an increase of 0.
84% over the previous period and 1.
53%
lower than the same period last year.

。 Next, downstream tire factories will usher in seasonal production seasons, and heavy-duty truck sales will usher in a small peak
.
The latest release of heavy-duty truck data in February fell month-on-month and year-on-year, partly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, basically in line with market expectations
.
Next, the sales data of heavy trucks in March is more critical, or determine the market's judgment
of the heavy truck market in 2018.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast that the current price of tianjiao will continue to fluctuate overall
.
At present, the fundamentals of China's tianjiao supply and demand have improved, the supply is off-season and the downstream consumption season, even if the inventory is high, the seasonal mismatch of supply and demand may still bring about a short-term rise, and it is expected that the wave of rebound will come from the end of March to April
.
However, the recovery of downstream demand is less than expected and the destocking is slow, and the rebound is limited, which is expected to be 13500-14000
.
In summary, Shanghai rubber is still in the game stage of long and short sides in the near future, short-term or maintain volatility, but in view of the current rubber price is close to the cost line, the support below is obvious, and supply and demand have improved, it is not recommended to chase short, should wait for the stabilization and rebound after the short-term layout of long orders
.