Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (2.20-2.24)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the US FOMC meeting minutes hinted that interest rate hikes would come "quite quickly", but the dollar still performed weakly, and the expectation of a rate hike in March was still not high
.
Domestically, in January 2017, Chinese domestic investors made non-financial direct investments in 983 overseas enterprises in 108 countries and regions around the world, achieving a cumulative investment of 53.
27 billion yuan (equivalent to 7.
73 billion US dollars), down 35.
7%
year-on-year.
Compared to December 2016, this decreased slightly by 4.
6%
month-on-month.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 17,500 yuan / ton, down about 1,000 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 17,500 yuan / ton, down 1,000 yuan / ton; In Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 17,000 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 19400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of February 24, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone soared to 156,600 tons, an overall increase of 34,800 tons, or 28.
57%,
from 121,800 tons in mid-January.
Among them, natural rubber was 116,200 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons, an increase of 27.
55%; synthetic rubber 36,000 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons, an increase of 37.
4%; Composite rubber was 04,400 tons, a decrease of 0.
01 million tons, a decrease of 2.
22%.

There are more warehouses around the Spring Festival, and the sharp increase in the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber is the main reason for
the overall inventory rise.
Futures inventories are about 266,000 tons, and futures market inventories are still growing
.

Fourth, demand, as of February 24, the downstream tire market has risen, the domestic tire industry all-steel tire operating rate of about 63%, semi-steel tire operating rate of about 70%, this week all-steel tire resumed normal production, the operating rate has increased significantly year-on-year, but not as good as the previous level, pay attention to whether environmental protection issues have an actual impact
on tire starts.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast, and Shanghai rubber maintains the finishing trend
.
Shanghai rubber still maintained a more biased approach
in the first quarter.
The recovery of downstream operating rate is better than last year, demand is temporarily stable, and the price of raw materials for glue is close to stopping on the supply side, and there is no downward momentum in the short term; Inventory in the bonded zone grew faster month-on-month, but the absolute growth was limited, and there was little pressure on prices
.
Raw material prices fluctuated, the operating rate of the tire industry maintained a high level of about 70%, and downstream consumption was in a flat period, but the fundamentals were still more
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber as a whole does not have too strong downward momentum, and it is still treated with more ideas
.