Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (1.9-1.13)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the US Department of Labor data showed that the US PPI in December increased by 0.
3% month-on-month, unchanged expectations, and increased by 1.
6% year-on-year, better than the previous value of 1.
3%, the largest
since September 2014.
The data suggests that inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target level
.
Domestically, Caixin China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recorded 51.
9% in December, up 1 percentage point from November to the highest value since January 2013 and far exceeding market expectations, indicating an acceleration
in manufacturing expansion at the end of the year.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in the market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 18,800 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 18,900 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation is about 18,900 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 19100 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, the recent Qingdao bonded zone rubber inventory slightly increased, as of the end of December inventory of 108,300 tons, up 2.
55% from mid-December, the inventory level is still at a historical low level, Shanghai futures tianjiao inventory rose 7,795 tons to 299,300 tons, the last period of tianjiao inventory increased compared with November, the recent southern Thailand affected by heavy rain, production has declined, the market price of tianjiao market price continues to rise
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of January 13, the downstream tire market has not changed much, the domestic tire industry all-steel tire operating rate is about 70%, semi-steel tire operating rate is about 72.
3%, the downstream tire market operating rate remains stable, tire operating rate remains at a high level, Tianjiao spot is affected by all aspects of favorability, spot market prices continue to rise
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, after the breakthrough, Shanghai rubber has maintained a strong position, with an increase in holdings and a strong
overall momentum.
Driven by futures, the spot market rose loudly, and the price of full latex also began to rise, and the futures price spread narrowed
.
Recently, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has been stable at about 70%, and the off-season is not light, and heavy trucks increased by 45% in August, hitting a new high this year, indicating that the overall demand performance is still good
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber needs to continue to wait and see
in the short term.