Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (1.3-1.6)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 153,000 in December, less than the expected 175,000, and the previous value increased by 216,000 revised to an increase of 215,000
.
The ADP employment data is known as the "small non-farm", indicating that the US non-farm payrolls data is not as good as expected
.
Domestically, the PMI of the service industry in December recorded 53.
4, up 0.
3 percentage points from November, but in the context of the gradual tightening of real estate policy and the possible slowdown of fiscal and monetary policy expansion, there is still uncertainty about whether the endogenous momentum of China's economy can be effectively hedged next year, and we need to be vigilant against the risk of
economic turning downward in the later period.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, Shanghai market, Yunnan 15-year full latex quotation of about 16400 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 16400 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation of about 16,000 yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 15-year Yunxiang full latex quotation of about 17,000 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, in the week ended January 6, contrary to the continuous decline in inventory in the bonded zone, rubber stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise
.
The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 1090 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 240370 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 80 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong increased by 1010 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of January 6, the downstream tire market has not changed much, the domestic tire industry all-steel tire operating rate is about 70%, semi-steel tire operating rate is about 72.
3%, downstream tire market operating rate remains stable, the recent downstream tire manufacturers just need to be the mainstay, tianjiao spot affected by all aspects of bearishness, spot market prices fall.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast that the global fundamentals will turn good, and the view
of bottoming out and stabilizing will be maintained in the medium and long term.
Recently, the supply of tianjiao in Southeast Asia, the main producing countries, has increased, the tense atmosphere of tianjiao spot has eased, and the export volume of other countries has maintained a high level
.
From a fundamental point of view, although the potential supply capacity of Tianjiao is large, due to the decline in production and the increase in demand, the inflection point of the supply and demand pattern has appeared
.
At the end of December, domestic cutting was completely stopped, and the main producing areas in Southeast Asia will also be stopped in January, and the pressure on new supply will gradually decrease
.
Raw material prices fluctuated, tire industry operating rate maintained a high level of about 70%, the recent market of tianjiao market is poor, the market transaction is rare, it is expected that next week tianjiao market price or will be range-bound
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.