Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (1.15-1.19)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, US industrial output in December was 0.
9% month-on-month, 0.
5% expected, and the previous value of 0.
2% was revised to -0.
1%.

US manufacturing output 0.
1% m/m in December vs 0.
3% expected and revised to 0.
3% from 0.
2%
prior.
Domestically, China's GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.
80% year-on-year, 6.
70% expected, 6.
80% in the previous month l China's GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.
60% month-on-month, 1.
70% expected, 1.
70% in the previous month, and China's GDP in the first to fourth quarters was 6.
90% year-on-year, 6.
80% expected, and 6.
90%
in the previous month.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, this week, the 16-year quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market was 12200 (-50) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 12100-12200 (0/0) yuan/ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 14700 (-50) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 45 (-1.
01) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 50.
05 (+0.
53) THB/kg; Field glue 44 (-1) baht/kg; Cup glue 37.
5 (-0.
5) baht/kg
.

Third, in terms of inventory, at present, the biggest contradiction of natural rubber lies in the high inventory of rubber and the slow
growth of downstream demand.
From the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone, natural rubber has entered the state of
accumulated inventory.
As of January 19, 2018, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased to 246,200 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons, or 4.
5%, from the beginning of January, and a decrease
from the previous period.
The increase was mainly due to the increase
in natural and synthetic rubber inventories.

4.
On the demand side, in the week of January 19, 2018, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 68%, up nearly 7 percentage points from last week, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.
8%; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 71%, and the weekly increase was 5 percent, narrowing the year-on-year decline to -1.
6%.

As the current tire companies maintain rigid procurement, have not yet started the stocking market, the demand for rubber market is weak, and social inventory continues to increase, which has become the trading logic of bears and the main reason for
the setback of the bulls' attack.
Although rubber-producing countries have successively introduced policies to intervene in rubber prices, the policies have not produced a superposition effect, and the promotion is limited
.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast that the current price of tianjiao will continue to fluctuate overall
.
At present, the price of Shanghai rubber has not been able to get out of the shock range, and the market is waiting for new supply and demand factors to choose the direction
.
From a fundamental point of view, the rubber market in 2018 is still a loose supply pattern, but from a seasonal point of view, supply and demand will improve to a certain extent in the later period
.
At the same time, the recent hype on the supply side is expected to support the improvement of rubber prices in the first quarter, while the later benefits are mainly focused on the improvement of supply and demand
.