Analysis of the trend of the average price of national standard rubber in the first half of 2016

As China's real estate bubble expands, inflation accelerates and expectations become stronger, China's monetary policy shifts from active easing to steadiness, domestic market demand continues to pick up, and manufacturing production also actively recovers
.
Benefiting from the early market speculation of the dry weather factors of rubber-producing countries, the rubber tapping time was delayed, and the supply was not expected to pick up as scheduled, coupled with the domestic black series has always been in an upward rhythm, driving the strong performance of natural rubber
.

In terms of inventory, the high level of inventory in the bonded zone fell
.
Affected by the increase in the operating rate of downstream manufacturers and the entry into the shutdown period in major producing countries, the inventory of bonded zones continued to decline after the Spring Festival and stabilized
in May.
But by mid-June, rubber stocks in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone had fallen
again.
However, once the new rubber is on the market in large quantities, the inventory of tianjiao in Qingdao Free Trade Zone will re-emerge.

In view of the fact that 2016 is still in the peak season of rubber production, overseas seasonal supply pressure is increasingly apparent, and the trend of domestic digestion slowing down, the process of foreign inventory pressure transfer will continue, and the inventory in the bonded zone will still continue to rise in the future
.

At the beginning of this year, the operating rate of tire factories increased by about 5 points compared with the same period last year, and the operating rate from March to May was better than the same period.

Downstream tire and products enterprises recovered in demand after the year, the operating rate of medium and large tire factories increased to 70% or more, and the raw material inventory was not much, the overall demand increased significantly, and the continuous release of rigid demand supported the domestic spot
.
For the heavy-duty truck market, which uses the largest amount of natural rubber, sales continued to improve, up 16% year-on-year, and the heavy-duty vehicle market achieved positive growth
for the first time after 18 consecutive months of negative growth.

Overall, the increase in natural rubber prices in the first half of the year was mainly due to
tight supply during the shutdown period and the collective rise of black commodities.
As 2016 is still in the global supply season cycle, the overall volume will still maintain a growth rate
without the influence of weather factors.
Domestic economic data weakened, steady growth declined, good downstream demand continued to improve to a limited extent, and continuous trade frictions led to a contraction
of external demand.
However, at present, the price of natural rubber is at a relatively low historical level, and the interests of rubber farmers in production areas are constantly being squeezed, and the enthusiasm of people is weakened or has a certain impact
on supply.
Policy uncertainties such as storage, storage, and weather speculation in the third quarter will bring short-term fluctuation opportunities, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weakness of the industry, and it is expected that the overall range fluctuation
of Shanghai rubber will continue in the second half of 2016.