Analysis of the trend of aluminum prices in the domestic market in January

Boosted by the rise in aluminum at the beginning of this month, the main force of Shanghai aluminum approached the 10,000 mark of 10,000, but the price of alumina continued to fall, and the weak cost side inhibited the rise in aluminum prices.
Shanghai aluminum main force under pressure around 14,000; in the middle and late due to the rain and snow in the north, resulting in a decrease in market arrivals, subject to this speculation, investors are enthusiastic about longing, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, intraday breakthrough of 14,000 mark, and temporarily supported at this mark, the highest climb to 14285, but the cost continues to decline, and high profits increase new capacity expectations, as the year is approaching, market demand gradually weakens, the total signs do not support the aluminum price rise, the market long and short game, cautious January aluminum price or there is a possibility of falling, Shanghai aluminum main force 14,000 mark can support remains to be seen, operational advice for the time being
。 It is expected that the overall fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum in January is 13900-14300
.

In terms of the external market, this month Lun aluminum shock rise, at the beginning of the month due to Sino-US trade positive news, Lun aluminum moved up, the highest climbed to 1795 US dollars, and then the United States again raised the tariff stick to trigger a rise in risk aversion, macro expectations are empty, and Lun aluminum inventory increased, Lun aluminum the lowest down to 1735 US dollars, but by the domestic aluminum price sharply boosted, Lun aluminum center of gravity moved up, intraday breakthrough 1800 mark, the highest climb to 1830 US dollars / ton, from the trend point of view, Lun aluminum inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not substantially improve , Lun aluminum has limited upside, above 1800 or pressure remains, short-term temporary attention to whether this threshold can be effectively supported, it is expected that in January Lun aluminum or fell into a weak trend of shock, pay attention to the range of 1750-1850 US dollars
.

In terms of the market, there is not much circulation in the market, and the holders sell at a high price, but as the price continues to rise, middlemen and downstream fear of heights breed, most of them only buy on demand, and some are forced to replenish the warehouse at the end of the year, and buy
a small amount.
Overall trading volume
improved from November.
East China: this month aluminum price volatility rise, the beginning of the month slightly shock, with the arrival of cold air, northern rain and snow weather, resulting in a decrease in market arrivals, to boost investors to do more enthusiasm, aluminum prices slightly strong, as of December 31, East China spot aluminum average price in 14530 yuan / ton, up 530 yuan / ton from the end of November, a monthly increase of 3.
79%.

Spot premium expanded to 170
.
South China: As of December 31, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was between 14,890-14,990 yuan / ton, up 700 yuan / ton from the end of November, a monthly increase of 5%; The price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 410 yuan / ton
.
Due to the high price of the monthly ticket, the holders' willingness to raise the price is strong, which widens the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai, but downstream processing enterprises are waiting to see and see when receiving goods
.
It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in South China may make up for the decline in the later period, and the price difference between the two may return to about
200.

Market outlook, during the Spring Festival, Shanghai aluminum closed, Lun aluminum fell under pressure, the first trading day after the holiday, Shanghai aluminum fell 3%, the main 2004 contract once fell below the 13500 important mark support, the lowest down to 13480, but as China's stimulus measures to alleviate epidemic worries, and Lun aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, Shanghai aluminum fell slowed down, the main intraday back to the 13500 mark support, the overall shock around 13600-13700 yuan, next week enterprises are resuming work, but the epidemic worries are not over, Manufacturers may generally face labor difficulties, and it is difficult for demand to pick up significantly; It is expected that the aluminum price volatility will continue next week, focusing on the 13600-13900 range
.