Analysis of the market trend of natural rubber standard rubber in November

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in the macro aspect, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 249,000, expected to be 235,000, and the previous value was 239,000
.
Renewed jobless claims for the week of Nov.
4 were 1.
86 million, the lowest since
December 1973.
Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI came in at 60 in November, the highest since April 2000, 58.
2 expected vs.
58.
5
previously.
Eurozone services PMI flash reading for November was 56.
2, a new six-month high vs 55.
2 expected vs 55
prior.
Domestically, a survey by the China Bureau of Statistics showed that the national industrial capacity utilization rate in the third quarter of 2017 was 76.
8%, unchanged from the second quarter, and the cumulative industrial capacity utilization rate in the first three quarters was 76.
6%, an increase of 3.
5 percentage points year-on-year, the highest level
in nearly five years.
In addition, at present, the price of tianjiao is supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated upward
.

Second, in terms of market, the 15-year quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market is 12350-12400 (+250/+300) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 12300 (+200) yuan / ton; 15 years Thailand No.
3 tobacco sheet 14500 (+300) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 42.
9 (+0.
1) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 45.
77 (+0.
45) THB/kg; field glue 45 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 35 (0) baht/kg
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of November 30, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.
6% from the beginning of the month to 20.
61 tons, of which natural rubber decreased by 1.
5% to 114,600 tons, synthetic rubber increased by 11.
3% to 87,500 tons, and composite rubber remained unchanged
at 4,000 tons.
At present
, there is no significant improvement in domestic supply and demand.
Last week's rubber inventory increased by 500,000 lots, about 210,000 tons of warehouse receipts were converted into spot this month, and the delivery volume was about 50,000 tons, the apparent data of futures inventories fell sharply this week, and the pressure on the futures plate has been reduced, but after the warehouse receipt was realized, the supply and demand of the spot market was put under pressure, and the rise of spot rubber was difficult
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, the current consumption of downstream enterprises of China's tianjiao is still far lower than in previous years, although the operating rate of tire enterprises has increased month-on-month, but it is still low year-on-year, and the current has entered the off-season of tire enterprises, and the terminal is still weak; Moreover, the liquidity of downstream enterprises is tight, coupled with the strict requirements of environmental protection policies for the start of rubber enterprises, these have formed great restrictions
on the procurement of tianjiao.
In general, relative to supply, the demand for tianjiao is much weaker than the supply, and the imbalance between supply and demand is serious
.

Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website analysis shows that the current price of tianjiao generally continues to fluctuate, even if there is occasionally a large increase, but there is no obvious benefit
.
The serious contradiction between the supply and demand of tianjiao is the fundamental factor leading to the continuous downturn of tianjiao, and there is no obvious benefit
at present.
Rubber may benefit from the rainy season factors in Thailand and the favorable speculation of the domestic rubber production area entering the closed season, and at the same time, with reference to the past law, there will be a tradition of stockpiling in advance at the end of December and early January every year, and there will be a certain price rise or moderate rebound in the short term; However, on the whole, we believe that the world's main producing countries are still in the peak season of rubber production, China's tianjiao imports are still at the peak, the inventory of bonded areas and the inventory of warehouse receipts in the previous period are still high, and the purchasing power of downstream enterprises is obviously weak
.
The overall supply and demand of tianjiao is still a serious imbalance of oversupply, and the market trend of tianjiao is still not optimistic
.